Major French research on Covid-19 vaccinations really (does not) show this

Recently a major French study looking at the relationship between mortality and Covid vaccinations was published. It concerned 28 million French people between the ages of 18 and 59, where mortality rates were monitored over four years. This concerned more than 22 million vaccinated people and 28 million unvaccinated people.

In those almost 4 years, 130,000 of the research group died. After correction procedures, mortality among those with a Covid vaccination would be 25% lower than among those who had not been vaccinated against Covid-19.

The research has been publicly embraced by Marion Koopmans and Marc van Ranst, among others, and defended by Maarten Keulemans.

But if you delve deeper into the report and the results, I came across the same thing as I had observed with the Nivel research and the Utrecht research in 2024: demonstrable problems in the research design, but as the conclusions are satisfactory, it is indeed embraced by prominent figures from the scientific world. (If you want to read back about what’s going on with those two studies, read it here and here).

before I delve deeper into the problems of French research, I would like to use a simple example to indicate what the problem is with those studies.

Vegetarians are healthier

Please note: this is a fake example.

A large study has been conducted on the possible health benefits of vegetarians. The researchers followed large numbers of vegetarians in 10 countries (more than 5 million) for 30 years. The age of death was compared between vegetarians and meat eaters. And after various statistical corrections, it turned out that vegetarians in those 10 countries lived 2 years longer.

The research is welcomed and spread by vegetarians worldwide, with the additional argument that they should also become vegetarian.

Suppose I dive deep into the data. And I also note that in only two countries there is a real age difference between the time of death of vegetarians and non-vegetarians. And a very big difference.From more than 10 years and these determine the end result of the research in those 10 countries.

Then, as a researcher, you delve into the figures of those two countries with the major differences.What is different there than in the other 8 countries?

You look at the basic data of those two countries and you are astonished to see that no fewer than 50 vegetarians had died at an age of over 130 years.

Then you know without a doubt that something went wrong during that examination.Because if you take these 50 130-year-olds out of the study, there appears to be no difference in the average age of death between vegetarians and non-vegetarians in those two countries.

But

A Flawed Study and Convenient Narratives

This table doesn’t reveal the positive effects of the Covid-19 vaccination; it’s an artifact of the research methodology. responsible researchers, faced with such findings, would meticulously re-examine their work. If the cause remains elusive, publication – and a scientific journal’s acceptance of that publication – would be irresponsible.

Yet, the immediate aftermath of publication is predictable. Marion Koopmans and Marc van Ranst shared the results on social media, and Maarten Keulemans explained to me that the increased mortality among the unvaccinated in traffic accidents stems from their generally lower socio-economic status.

!Another embarrassingly bad large-scale study on the relationship between mortality and Covid vaccination – 112940

This is a typical approach for individuals like Keulemans. When results appear anomalous, a plausible clarification is readily offered. However, when results align with desired outcomes, alternative explanations are dismissed, and the findings are embraced without critical scrutiny.

Why wouldn’t the higher Covid-19 mortality among the unvaccinated also be attributed to their lower socio-economic status? Perhaps due to reduced remote work opportunities, leading to increased exposure in higher-risk environments compared to vaccinated individuals?

no, because as soon as the results can be used to promote the benefits of the Covid-19 vaccination, alternative explanations are disregarded, and the findings are disseminated. The French large-scale study – involving a ample 28 million people – indicated significantly lower mortality among those vaccinated against Covid-19.

However, like the Nivel study, the Utrecht study, and numerous others, these results are artifacts of the research design. Yet, when convenient, they are utilized and accepted uncritically by fellow scientists, fearing repercussions for challenging the prevailing narrative.

What’s it really like?

Fortunately,I have more pressing matters than dissecting this particular research. Even when the flaws are demonstrably clear,they are ignored by those who initially lauded the study,including science journalists like Maarten Keulemans.

I will simply defer to the critiques offered by those who have thoroughly investigated the research, recognizing the familiar patterns I’ve observed in other studies.