Syria: A Strategic Dispute Scenario Deepening Regional Uncertainty

The dynamics in Syria, Israel, Türkiye, and the United States have shifted rapidly in recent weeks. This analysis highlights the unstable relationships regional powers are attempting to build, and the structural limits of the actors on the ground.From the failure of Washington’s strategy involving Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to the reflection of tensions in the Israel-Türkiye axis within the Syrian scenario, and from threats against Rojava to the potential consequences of easing Caesar sanctions, all these factors are deepening regional uncertainty.

“They see Syria as clay that can be molded”

Syria has become a strategic dispute scenario, subject to simultaneous intervention from multiple international and regional actors. Its geopolitical importance, spanning from the Eastern Mediterranean to the reconfiguration of the Middle East, transforms every event into a multilevel power struggle.

“They see syria as a clay that can be molded, and there are many forces that do it at the same time. Among them are the united Nations, the European Union, as well as Russia, USA, Arab countries, Türkiye, Israel, and France. All of these actors are involved as Syria occupies an extremely strategic position. It is decisive both for the eastern Mediterranean and for the reconfiguration of the Middle East. Syria is not just Syria; Unfortunately, no regional problem exists in isolation.”

This results in a process where numerous forces intervene concurrently and from multiple directions, all striving to consolidate their influence. The European Union recently dispatched officials to guide Syria according to its interests, and the United Nations appointed new representatives to oversee the process. Russia is attempting to reach agreements with the HTS management to preserve its position. And, crucially, the USA is a key country in this dynamic.

“Trump wants to reshape the world on his own terms”

Donald Trump seeks to restructure the world around a US-centered order, a strategy intersecting with hegemonic ambitions in europe and the Middle East.

“Trump attempts to shape the entire world under the leadership of the United States, with America at the center. The strategic document published as the ‘new Monroe Doctrine‘ foresees a global hegemonic position. it is mainly articulated around Western Europe and the European Union, which is where it wants to establish that hegemony. But if you want to dominate Europe, you inevitably have to also focus on the Middle east.”

Following the attack on Palmyra, a lack of complex grand strategy became apparent. In Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Al-Jolani) and Trump maintained that, after Palmyra, the issue ‘has nothing to do with them,’ dismissing it with references to ‘ISIS and things like that.’ Erdoğan, Netanyahu, and Prince Salman exercise their power in a similar manner. Trump intends to utilize them all as delegated forces.

“A kind of Middle East NATO is projected”

Around the Abraham Accords, there’s not only an attempt to build a political bloc, but also a military bloc.

ISIS,Capitalism,and Regional Instability: A Complex Interplay

Military action alone won’t eliminate ISIS. Even if countries adopt military measures under the guise of fighting terrorism, these methods won’t end it as long as the underlying ideological and social foundations remain.History demonstrates this repeatedly.

ISIS-like ideologies spread and gain influence, especially in Africa and regions with large Muslim populations, because capitalism fails to provide solutions to the problems people face.There’s a clear logic to this: economic collapse, a sense of hopelessness among young people, and a perceived lack of alternatives. Joining a group, even a dangerous one, becomes the only perceived option. This isn’t the fault of any single actor; it’s a global responsibility. However, the world doesn’t adequately understand or address the root causes. Many believe superficial approaches and short-term policies will suffice, but this isn’t possible. It’s a stark reality.

“Turkey’s genocide threat has not gone away”

Recent efforts to improve relations between Israel and Turkey have stalled due to the situation in Gaza. This tension directly impacts Syria, and Turkey’s threats against Rojava are increasing regional risks.

Following a meeting between Netanyahu and Tom Barrack, Barrack then met with Hakan Fidan. There’s a general effort to ease Israeli-Turkish relations, but the Palestine-gaza conflict, and the possibility of Turkey sending troops to Gaza, have blocked progress. Turkey was notably excluded from a recent meeting in Doha, which the Turkish side dismisses as insignificant. However, Israel clearly doesn’t want Turkey involved, and fears Turkish troops entering Gaza wouldn’t leave.

Generally, unless Israel and Turkey align, opposing positions in Syria will continue, and that’s precisely what’s happening. Turkey persistently threatens Rojava, especially given its current situation. From Turkey’s perspective, a key motivation for this…