Thwaites Glacier Melting Rate Accelerates Due to Warm Ocean Water Intrusion
The Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica is melting at a rate that will likely double its projected contribution to global sea level rise by 2100, according to research published in Nature Communications. ANTARA News reported that researchers studying the massive ice sheet found warm ocean water is pushing kilometers beneath the glacier, actively eroding it from the base.
Researchers project that the glacier—often called the Doomsday Glacier due to the catastrophic risks of its collapse—could contribute up to 30 millimeters, or 1.2 inches, to global sea level rise by the end of the century under current conditions. Previous ice sheet models estimated that contribution at roughly 15 millimeters, or 0.6 inches.
Grounding Zone Dynamics and Tidal Pumping Mechanics
The accelerated melting is driven by processes occurring at the glacier’s grounding zone, where ice resting on bedrock begins to float in the ocean. Traditional models treated the grounding line as a fixed boundary, but the new study models a wider area where repeating tides lift and lower the ice sheet.
🚨 A giant glacier in Antarctica, roughly the size of Great Britain, is raising serious concerns among scientists over the potential impact on coastlines around the world — including the UK. Known as the ‘Doomsday Glacier’, Thwaites Glacier is losing ice as warmer ocean water… pic.twitter.com/GSXKHxbHrt
Mattia Poinelli, a project scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, and lead author of the study, explained that this mechanism—known as tidal pumping—allows relatively warm seawater to reach much deeper beneath the ice and trigger intense basal melting. Similar research conducted by scientists at the University of California, Irvine, and the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory also mapped this detailed sub-glacial melting process.
Mouginot Ridge Release Risks and Projections
The new simulations raise concerns that Thwaites Glacier may lose contact with the Mouginot Ridge, an underwater structure currently helping to anchor and hold back the ice movement. Simulations matching recent satellite observations indicate a 60 percent probability that the glacier will detach from this underwater ridge before the end of the century, potentially starting as early as the late 2030s.
Once the ice clears this threshold, it could retreat faster toward inland basins. Spanning roughly 192,000 square kilometers—an area comparable to Senegal—the Thwaites Glacier functions alongside the Pine Island Glacier as a vital buttress preventing massive inland ice flows from reaching the sea.
Global Sea Level Risks and Scientific Uncertainty
Since 2000, the glacier has lost more than 1 trillion tons of ice, with ongoing losses of approximately 50 billion tons annually, and currently accounts for about 4 percent of global sea level rise. While the projected 30-millimeter contribution by 2100 may appear modest, experts warn it substantially increases coastal flooding and erosion risks worldwide, particularly when paired with high tides or severe storms.
Despite the advanced modeling, researchers emphasize that these simulations are not a guarantee of total collapse. Scientists plan direct observations in the Thwaites region by 2028, deploying instruments beneath the ice to record seawater movement and refine future sea level projections.
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