Iowa State Faces Tennessee State in NCAA Tournament First Round

The No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones and the Tennessee State Tigers will meet in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday, March 20, 2026, at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri. Tipoff is scheduled for 2:50 p.m. ET on CBS.

Matchup Overview

Iowa State (27-7) enters the tournament having dropped an 82-80 decision to Arizona in the Substantial 12 Tournament semifinals. Tennessee State (23-9) is coming off a 93-67 victory over Morehead State to win the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament championship. The Tigers have won six consecutive games and tied for the OVC regular-season title with a 15-5 record.

Betting Odds

Iowa State is a significant 24.5-point favorite in the latest odds, with a moneyline of -10000. Tennessee State is +2625 on the moneyline. The over/under for total points scored is set at 148.5, according to FOX Sports.

Key Players

For Iowa State, Milan Momcilovic is averaging 17.1 points per game, although Joshua Jefferson has averaged 16.6 points over the last 10 games. FOX Sports reports that Momcilovic recently scored 28 points, 5 rebounds, and 1 block in his last game.

Tennessee State is led by Aaron Nkrumah, who averages 17.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.8 steals per game. Travis Harper II is averaging 16.3 points over the last 10 games.

Statistical Insights

Iowa State averages 9.0 made 3-pointers per game, 2.1 more than Tennessee State allows. Tennessee State shoots at a 46.0% rate from the field, 3.4 percentage points higher than Iowa State’s opponents average. The Cyclones are 14-7 against Big 12 opponents and 13-0 in non-conference play. The Tigers are 17-5 against OVC opponents.

SportsLine Projection Model Prediction

The SportsLine Projection Model, which has a strong track record in predicting college basketball outcomes, projects the Over on the total (148.5 points). The model predicts a combined score of 154 points, with the Over hitting in 66% of simulations. The model is on an 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season and a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Iowa State University Athletics reports that the model suggests one side of the spread will cash in more than 50% of simulations, but that pick is only available at SportsLine.

Tennessee State Tournament History

Tennessee State’s only previous Division I NCAA Tournament appearances were in back-to-back seasons in 1993 and 1994, when they won consecutive OVC Tournament championships, according to Iowa State University Athletics.