The UK-France “one in, one out” migrant returns agreement is set to expire on Thursday, October 1, 2026, after negotiations to extend the pilot scheme stalled in Paris. British Home Office staff and French counterparts have been discussing the terms of withdrawal in the French capital, according to government sources cited by Reuters and other international outlets.
Why the Pilot Scheme is Ending
The bilateral agreement was announced jointly by Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron in July 2025 as a pilot program to deter small-boat crossings across the English Channel. Under the terms of the deal, Britain could return undocumented migrants arriving via small boats to France in exchange for taking an equal number of asylum seekers with family links in Britain.
However, French officials indicated reluctance to continue the arrangement on a bilateral basis. French Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez stated during a parliamentary commission appearance that while the scheme acted as a potential deterrent, France should not bear the burden alone. Paris has pushed instead for a broader Europe-wide returns agreement, maintaining that the pilot was never intended to run past October 1, 2026.
Negotiations stalled primarily over French demands for an EU-wide framework and reservations about scaling up the volume of exchanges. A UK government source noted that while London would have welcomed an extension, the termination is not critical because the program never reached a scale where it would have been a proper deterrent.
Operational Challenges and Costs
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood disclosed to UK lawmakers that the scheme proved operationally difficult to expand. Constraints regarding detention space limited the number of removals, with total returns remaining relatively low.
Official data indicates that more than 1,400 individuals who arrived in the UK via small boats were sent back to France under the agreement. Conversely, as of the end of June 2026, 1,117 people with links to the UK were sent to the UK from France. Reuters figures noted 951 returns to France and 935 legal entries to the UK under the framework. Mahmood also reported to MPs that the program cost about £56,000 for every individual returned to France.
Press reports noted that several individuals deported to France under the arrangement subsequently experienced homelessness in the French capital, while others returned to northern migration camps around Calais and Dunkirk, with some attempting the Channel crossing again.
Current Small-Boat Crossing Statistics
Despite the expiration of the bilateral pact, cross-Channel arrivals have decreased significantly. British interior ministry data shows that between January and 27 September, 19,135 people crossed the Channel by small boat from France, marking a 42% decline compared to the same period the previous year. A British Home Office spokesperson stated that summer crossings reached their lowest level in six years and confirmed that a newly established task force continues to work with French authorities to target illegal crossings.
While the UK Home Office confirmed that no new cases are being processed under the pilot, removal flights for individuals already detained under the scheme will proceed before concluding entirely within weeks.
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