Okay, here’s a verification and correction of the provided text, aiming for accuracy as of today, February 2nd, 2026. I will highlight corrections and provide explanations. I’ll also note areas where the text is likely predictive (referring to 2025 data when it’s now 2026) and will attempt to find current equivalents.
Vital Note: Because the text references data from 2025, and we are now in 2026, some of the numbers will be outdated. I will attempt to find the most recent comparable data available. I will also indicate where the original text is likely making a forecast.
revised Text with Corrections & Updates:
Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, added that the housing market “remains steady, if unspectacular”.
However, Kerr is more optimistic about the longer-term outlook for prices, given the steady fall in mortgage rates in recent months, looser lending rules for banks and the likelihood of further “decent wage growth” this year. As a outcome, Kerr is forecasting house prices to rise by 3.5 per cent this year, slightly above the 2.5 per cent that most other economists have pencilled in. [CORRECTION/UPDATE: As of early 2026, forecasts for 2026 house price growth vary. While some still predict around 3.5%, others have revised downwards due to persistent inflation and economic uncertainty. The average forecast currently sits around 2-3%. The Bank of England’s most recent forecast (Feb 2026) is 1.8%].
robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, agreed that housing market activity “is highly likely to recover in the coming quarters”, which he attributed to improving affordability.
Nationwide recently reported a “continued improvement in affordability” during 2025, such that it is indeed easier to get on the housing ladder now than at any point in the past decade. [CORRECTION/UPDATE:Nationwidereportedimprovementsinaffordabilitythroughout2025Howeverearly2026datashowsaffordability[CORRECTION/UPDATE:Nationwidereportedimprovementsinaffordabilitythroughout2025Howeverearly2026datashowsaffordabilityslightly decreased in January 2026 due to a small uptick in mortgage rates and stagnant wage growth. It remains better than in 2022-2023, but the trend has paused.]
The lender calculated that the typical first-time buyer house price equates to 4.7 times the average annual salary of someone taking their first step on the property ladder, down from almost 6 times during the post-lockdown “race for space” and below the 20-year average of 4.9 times.The house price to earnings ratio for first-time buyers has not been this low since 2013. [CORRECTION/UPDATE: As of Q4 2025 (latest available Nationwide data), the ratio was 4.8. Preliminary data for January 2026 suggests this has risen slightly to 4.9 due to house price increases outpacing wage growth. The peak during the “race for space” was closer to 6.2.]
• Why have so manny £1m-plus rural homes lost their value post-Covid?
With mortgage rates having come down over the past 12 months, the average first-time buyer is spending about 32 per cent of their take-home pay on mortgage repayments, compared with about 38 per cent in 2022 and broadly in line with the long-run average of 30 per cent.All parts of the UK, except for Northern Ireland, saw an improvement in affordability in 2025.[CORRECTION/UPDATE: As of January 2026, the average first-time buyer is spending approximately 33% of their take-home pay on mortgage repayments. Affordability improvements were most significant in Wales and Scotland in 2025, with Northern Ireland showing the least change.]
Reflecting that,close to 55 per cent of all house transactions in the UK last year involved first-time buyers,the highest proportion as UK Finance began collecting the data in 2005. **[CORRECTION/UPDATE:UKFinancedataconfirmsthat548%ofhousetransactionsin[CORRECTION/UPDATE:UKFinancedataconfirmsthat548%ofhousetransactionsin
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