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Ukraine Targets Russian Oil Infrastructure, Disrupting Baltic Exports
Russian oil exports are facing significant disruptions following recent Ukrainian drone attacks on key facilities in the Baltic Sea region, specifically targeting the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga. The attacks have led to fires and temporary halts in oil deliveries, impacting approximately 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity, according to a Reuters analysis.
Attacks Confirmed
Russian officials have confirmed fires broke out at Ust-Luga following the drone strikes on Wednesday, March 25, 2026. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the strike on the Novatek-Ust-Luga plant, stating that storage tank facilities and loading racks for oil and petroleum products were hit according to Ukrinform. Primorsk has also been targeted in recent weeks, with fires still burning as of Wednesday, according to Jukka-Pekka Lumilahti, chief of the Finnish Bay coast guard as reported by Upstream.
Impact on Export Capacity
The Novatek-Ust-Luga plant processes stable gas condensate and exports petroleum products internationally. The attacks, combined with a disputed attack on the Druzhba oil pipeline and the seizure of Russian oil tankers, represent the largest disruption to Russian oil supplies in modern times according to KyivPost. Approximately 2 million barrels per day of Russia’s crude oil export capacity is currently offline.
Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter, and revenue from oil exports is a major contributor to the national budget. With western export routes disrupted, Russia is increasingly reliant on exporting to Asian markets, where capacity is more limited.
Ukraine’s Strategy
Ukraine has confirmed its involvement in the attacks, stating they are aimed at disrupting Russia’s ability to fund its war efforts. The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) reported that drones from the Alpha Special Operations Center struck the Ust-Luga oil terminal as reported by Ukrinform. Ukraine also claims Russian attacks damaged parts of the Druzhba oil pipeline in late January.
The Novorossiysk oil terminal, capable of processing 700,000 barrels per day, has been operating below capacity since a Ukrainian drone strike earlier in March. Frequent seizures of Russian oil tankers in Europe have further disrupted deliveries, impacting approximately 300,000 barrels per day from Murmansk.
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