A depleted – but far from defeated Ukraine – looks to 2026 with few good military options, even though a critical €90bn (£79bn) loan from the EU has been agreed. The financing will help Kyiv to continue defending at its current intensity until late 2027, but it will not lead to a transformation of its battlefield prospects.
On land, the pattern of the last two years should, in the first instance, continue. Russia has held the initiative as 2024, but only gaining territory incrementally, largely as it constantly throws people into the “meat grinder” of the frontline. During 2025, Russian advances amounted to 176 sq miles a month to the end of November, but at an estimated cost of 382,000 killed and wounded.
The White House has argued, in the latest run of peace negotiations, that Ukraine is fated to lose the remaining 22% of Donetsk province, including the fortress cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. at the current rate of Russian advance that would take at least a year (and arguably more given the predominately urban surroundings) and another 400,000 or more Russians killed, disabled, or hurt – a cost Kyiv is willing to try to inflict.
nevertheless, there remain questions about Ukraine’s strategy and medium-term frontline resilience amid a slight betterment in Russian tactics. Three times in the past six months, Ukraine’s front has given way, east of Dobropillia in Donetsk in August, north of Kupiansk in Kharkiv province late summer, early autumn, and again east of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia in November.
each time weary defenders could not stave off an influx of Russian infiltrators, sneaking past Ukraine’s drone defence in tiny groups. In Kupiansk, the Russians used underground gas pipelines in their attacks. However,the Dobropillia incursion was snuffed out after two months; in Kupiansk,the pipelines were cut or their exits appear to have been and in December,the Russians pushed back.
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Ukraine Urges Shift to ‘Dynamic Defence’ Amidst Stalled Counteroffensive
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Ukraine is advocating for a strategic shift towards a “dynamic defence” to conserve resources and inflict maximum damage on Russian forces, as its counteroffensive struggles to achieve meaningful breakthroughs. This approach, championed by figures like Bohdan Krotevych, a prominent Ukrainian war veteran, prioritizes fortifying existing positions and utilizing advanced technologies to wear down the enemy, rather than pursuing large-scale offensives.
The Current Situation: A Stalled Counteroffensive
Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive,launched with high expectations and Western-supplied weaponry,has faced formidable challenges. Heavily fortified Russian defensive lines, extensive minefields, and a lack of air superiority have hampered progress.Gains have been incremental and costly, leading to concerns about the sustainability of the current strategy. The slow pace has also fueled debate within Ukraine about the best course of action.
What is ‘Dynamic defence’?
“Dynamic defence” represents a departure from the traditional concept of static fortifications. It involves:
- Fortified Zones: Establishing robust defensive lines with multiple layers of obstacles and prepared firing positions.
- Mobile Reserves: Maintaining highly mobile reserve forces capable of rapidly responding to Russian attacks and exploiting vulnerabilities.
- Technological Integration: Leveraging drones, electronic warfare systems, and precision-guided munitions to disrupt Russian advances and inflict heavy casualties.
- Attrition Warfare: Focusing on degrading Russian combat capabilities through sustained, targeted attacks.
Krotevych argues that this approach will allow Ukraine to preserve its limited manpower and equipment while inflicting unacceptable losses on Russia. He believes a six-month period of dynamic defence is necessary to re-evaluate the situation and prepare for future operations.
Why the Shift in Strategy?
Several factors are driving the call for a change in strategy:
“Ukraine needs to shift into a mode of dynamic defence for at least six months. The priority should be to inflict maximum losses on the enemy while minimising our own.” – Bohdan Krotevych
- Resource Constraints: Ukraine is heavily reliant on Western aid, and the supply of ammunition and equipment is not always guaranteed.
- Russian Defensive Capabilities: Russia has invested heavily in building formidable defensive lines, making large-scale breakthroughs extremely challenging.
- Casualty Rates: The counteroffensive has resulted in significant casualties on both sides, raising concerns about Ukraine’s ability to sustain prolonged offensives.
- Strategic Reassessment: The initial expectations of a rapid counteroffensive have not materialized, prompting a reassessment of Ukraine’s overall strategy.
The Role of Technology
Technology is central to the dynamic defence concept. Ukraine has already demonstrated its proficiency in using drones for reconnaissance, artillery spotting, and direct attacks. Further investment in:
- Long-Range Drones: To strike targets deep within Russian-held territory.
- Electronic Warfare Systems: To disrupt Russian communications and disable enemy equipment.
- Counter-Drone Technology: to protect Ukrainian forces from Russian drone attacks.
will be crucial for implementing this strategy effectively.
Challenges and Considerations
Implementing a dynamic defence strategy is not without its challenges:
- Maintaining Initiative: Shifting to a defensive posture could allow Russia to regain the initiative and launch its own offensives.
- Western Support: Convincing Western allies to support a shift away from offensive operations may require careful diplomacy.
- Public Perception: A defensive strategy may be perceived as a setback by the Ukrainian public, who are eager to see progress on the battlefield.
Key Takeaways
- Ukraine is considering a shift to a “dynamic defence” strategy due to the challenges faced during its counteroffensive.
- Dynamic defence prioritizes fortified zones, mobile reserves, and technological integration to inflict maximum damage on Russian forces.
- Resource constraints, Russian defensive capabilities, and casualty rates are driving the call for a change in strategy.
- Technology, notably drones
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