Ukraine’s Defense of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd: Holding Out?

The battle for Pokrovsk and mirnograd: A Year and a Half of Fighting

The fighting near the pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration in the Donetsk region has been going on for almost a year and a half, and at the end of October the Kremlin announced thier encirclement. But the ukrainian military still holds the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk and maintains a presence in the center of Mirnograd. how long can this go on?

This is a translation of material from a correspondent of the BBC Ukrainian Service. You can read the original in Ukrainian here.

Two months have passed since Russian authorities announced the “encirclement” of a nearly 5,500-strong Ukrainian group in Pokrovsk and Mirnograd (the Kremlin uses their Soviet names, Krasnoarmeysk and Dimitrov).

“I would like to congratulate all the personnel of the Joint Group of Forces on these results. Simultaneously occurring, as has already been noted, ther is a lot of difficult work ahead to eliminate the encircled enemy format

Battle for Pokrovsk: Russia Gains Foothold in Divided City

the battle for Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine has seen Russia gain a foothold in the southern part of the city, divided by railroad tracks, while ukrainian forces maintain control of the northern neighborhoods. Russian troops, employing tactics of massive air strikes and infiltration of small infantry groups, captured Pokrovsk and mirnograd.

According to Ukrainian estimates,Russia has concentrated approximately 150,000 soldiers in this sector of the front – more than any other.

Recent weeks have seen no dramatic shifts in the situation, according to BBC sources within the Ukrainian command. Russian forces are consolidating their position in the south, showcasing their control through photographs with their flags and allowing military officers to pose for pictures.

Ukrainian forces are actively preventing the accumulation of enemy equipment and targeting drone operators in the northern neighborhoods, characterized by low-rise buildings and private houses. They continue to maintain fire control over this area.

Russian Assaults Stalled North of Pokrovsk, situation Complex in mirnograd

Footage shows the destruction of Russian armored columns attacking north of Pokrovsk in the direction of Dobropolye on December 22. The Russians’ largely mechanized assaults on the main flanking points – villages along the routes to Pavlograd and Dobropolye – have not yet brought significant success for the Russians. The Ukrainian military has already released several videos of the destruction of such enemy columns.

Such as, on December 22, units of the First Corps of the National Guard “Azov” (in Russia, all structures of this association are declared a “terrorist organization”, but it is part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) discovered and destroyed several Russian armored columns trying to break through towards Dobropolye.

As an inevitable result of the defeat,according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine,the Russian Federation lost 6 tanks,15 armored vehicles,10 motorized vehicles and dozens of personnel. This is accompanied by a video showing the destruction of such columns.

What’s happening in Mirnograd

The situation in Mirnograd is more complicated than in pokrovsk.There is still a garrison of Ukrainian soldiers in the center of the city, who are forced to fight in virtually complete encirclement.

there is no verified information about whether the ukrainian armed Forces still hold the “corridor” for the logistics of this garrison. The path passed through the small villages of Rovnoye and Svetloye, which are located on the highway between Mirnograd and Pokrovsk.

But Russia announced on December 7 that its army had captured Rovnoye, and on December 20 – Svetloye. The Ukrainian command insists that the “corridor” is still functioning.Moreover, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are allegedly making efforts not only to retain it, but also to expand it.

The statement of the 7th Corps dated December 24 indicated the reinforcement of the site in mirnograd with new forces and means. “In particular, th

difficult Logistics and Strategic Defense: The Situation in Pokrovsk and Mirnograd

The situation for the ukrainian garrison in Pokrovsk and Mirnograd remains “difficult,” with the enemy actively disrupting logistics and maintaining an operational environment that hinders supply lines. According to reports,only 30% of supplies reach the Ukrainian forces by land,forcing reliance on air deliveries and ground drones.

Roman Kostenko describes the situation in the Pokrovsko-Mirnograd agglomeration as “particularly difficult,” with Ukrainian troops engaged in grueling urban combat while facing potential encirclement. While some have advocated for withdrawal, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed forces has opted to maintain its presence in these cities.

Commander-in-chief Alexander Syrsky states the strategy is to wear down the enemy and halt their advance. He claims Ukrainian forces have even regained some ground,reporting the recapture of 16 square kilometers in northern Pokrovsk and an additional 56 square kilometers near Grishino,Kotlino,and Udachnoye.

This resistance in Mirnograd and Pokrovsk appears to have disrupted the Russian General Staff’s plans, effectively “stuck” russian forces in prolonged and costly battles.

Ukrainian Commander Predicts Loss of Pokrovsk in spring 2024

A Ukrainian commander believes Pokrovsk is likely to fall to Russian forces sometime in the spring of 2024, if the current situation persists. This assessment comes as fighting intensifies in eastern Ukraine, mirroring the protracted battle for Avdeevka, which Russia captured after a four-month offensive.

Prediction for Pokrovsk

According to a report from Ukrainian news outlet LB.ua,the commander Dmitro Filatov stated,”Will we lose Pokrovsk? Given the current course of events – yes,I think sometime in the spring – in the middle of spring. If nothing changes and everything goes on as it goes.” The prediction highlights the increasingly challenging situation facing Ukrainian forces in the region.

The Avdeevka Precedent

The anticipated timeframe for Pokrovsk’s potential fall is contextualized by the recent capture of Avdeevka by Russian forces. The operation to sieze Avdeevka, a strategically vital industrial city, lasted from mid-October 2023 until February 16, 2024. Ukrainian troops defending Avdeevka were nearly encircled and only able to withdraw along a limited logistics corridor after reinforcements were deployed. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) extensively covered the Avdeevka campaign, detailing the Russian tactics and Ukrainian defensive challenges.

The similarities between the situations in Avdeevka and Pokrovsk – including potential encirclement and reliance on supply lines – raise concerns about the ability of Ukrainian forces to hold Pokrovsk without significant changes in the battlefield dynamics.

Strategic Importance of Pokrovsk

Pokrovsk, located in the Donetsk Oblast, is a key transportation hub and a staging point for Ukrainian forces. Losing Pokrovsk would represent a further advance for Russia in its efforts to control the Donbas region and could potentially threaten other strategically critically important cities.

Current Situation and Challenges

As of December 26, 2023, intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces are facing relentless Russian attacks, and the situation is described as extremely difficult. The lack of sufficient ammunition and personnel is a major challenge for Ukrainian defenders. Reuters reports that Russian forces are intensifying their attacks, aiming to break through Ukrainian defenses.

Key Takeaways:

* A Ukrainian commander predicts the loss of pokrovsk in the spring of 2024 if current conditions remain unchanged.
* The situation mirrors the recent fall of Avdeevka, which took Russia four months to capture.
* Pokrovsk is a strategically important city, and its loss would be a significant setback for ukraine.
* Ukrainian forces are facing intense Russian attacks and are struggling with ammunition and personnel shortages.

The situation in eastern ukraine remains highly volatile.The coming months will be critical in determining the fate of Pokrovsk and the broader course of the conflict. Continued international support for Ukraine, including the provision of essential military aid, will be crucial in helping Ukrainian forces defend their territory.