by Giovanni Cardarello
After a Saturday morning of relative variability, with isolated showers that have already reached 20 millimeters in Folignate, Umbria is preparing for a significant worsening. An Atlantic disturbance, driven by south-westerly currents, will hit the region from the afternoon of February 7, bringing with it locally intense showers and thunderstorms.
Confirmation of the criticality comes directly from the Regional Functional Center. The Civil Protection of Umbria has in fact issued an alert document (number 037/2026) which establishes the ‘yellow code’ for hydrogeological risk in all regional sectors (Zones A, B, C, D, E, F) for the entire day of Saturday 7 February.
The alert is motivated by the forecast of scattered rainfall, including showers or thunderstorms, which will persist in an already vulnerable area. The risk reported concerns possible local flooding, damage to infrastructure and potential interruptions of the road network near depressed areas or underpasses, due to land now saturated by the rains of recent days.
According to the analysis of Michele Cavallucci of the Facebook page staff Perugia Weatherthe worsening will not hit everywhere with the same force. In the Trasimeno area, in fact, the attention remains maximum but with a hint of bitterness: despite the fact that the lake level has risen by 15 centimeters since the beginning of the year (standing at -146 centimeters above hydrometric zero), the area continues to confirm itself as the least rainy in Umbria. As the experts point out Perugia Weatherthe climatological history of the lake teaches that this is the area where it rains the least: for a true recovery, we are literally ‘in the hands of Jupiter Pluvio’.
Moving towards the area of Perugia, Corciano and Città di Castello, the arrival of the storm nuclei is expected from Saturday afternoon. Similar scenario for the Eugubino area, where the proximity to the Apennine ridge could accentuate the strength of the phenomena. Delicate situation in the Umbrian Valley: between Bastia, Assisi, Foligno and Spoleto, the land already has to manage the heavy accumulations of the morning, increasing the risk of localized critical issues.
In the south, between Todi and Orvieto, the south-westerly currents will bring widespread rain which will also wet the Conca Ternana, between Terni and Narni, confirming the trend of a particularly wet start to the year for the southern region. In Valnerina, mild temperatures will keep the snow level very high, limiting the flakes only above 1,500 metres.
For Sunday 8 February the picture will remain extremely variable. Although continuous rain is not expected, there will be ample opportunity for scattered showers, more likely during the afternoon hours and close to the Apennines. Temperatures will continue to remain a few degrees above the seasonal average. However, the long-term outlook does not promise stability: next week promises to still be rainy at times, with a possible and intense worsening for the second half of the week, which however awaits further confirmation from mathematical models.
date: 2026-02-07 16:42:00
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