Khamenei’s Death and the US-China Relationship

The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a joint American-Israeli operation on Saturday, March 1, 2026, has introduced a new dynamic into the anticipated visit by U.S. President Donald Trump to China. Analysts suggest the event could heighten tensions between the two nations, potentially complicating efforts to reach a substantial agreement during the upcoming summit.

China’s Economic Concerns

China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, relied heavily on Iranian oil exports, purchasing over 80% of them in 2023 PBS. This accounted for 13.4% of China’s total seaborne crude oil imports. With Western sanctions already restricting Iranian oil exports since 2002, China has been a primary purchaser. The disruption of this supply, following similar issues with Venezuela, raises concerns about China’s access to affordable crude oil.

a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil trade, could inflict significant economic damage on China. George Chen, a researcher at Asia Group, stated that Chinese President Xi Jinping will likely approach President Trump “with a less happy heart,” and investors should temper expectations for a U.S.-China agreement NPR.

Maintaining a Delicate Balance

Despite criticizing the U.S. And Israeli strikes as a violation of international law – with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning emphasizing the need for resolution through the UN Security Council NPR – China has avoided direct support for Iran. Yoon Sun, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center, noted that China will likely refrain from confronting the U.S. To support Iran, prioritizing the continuation of trade war truce talks NPR.

Symbolic Gestures

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), led by China, observed a moment of silence for Khamenei by flying flags at half-mast at its Shanghai headquarters on March 2, 2026. This gesture followed Iran’s declaration of a national mourning period NPR. Iran joined the SCO in 2023.

Looking Ahead

While the situation remains fluid, the U.S.-China summit is still expected to proceed as scheduled, driven by both countries’ need to avoid escalating trade tensions. Discussions may include energy supply and the broader Middle East crisis. China’s cautious approach suggests a desire to maintain a relatively favorable position ahead of President Trump’s visit, even as it navigates the complexities of the evolving geopolitical landscape.