US Mortgage Rates Climb Above 6% Amidst Iran Conflict Concerns

Following the outbreak of conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, interest rates on US mortgage loans have risen, exceeding the 6% threshold. This increase reflects growing concerns about inflation and its potential impact on the housing market.

Recent Rate Increases

According to Freddie Mac, a US government-run mortgage loan company, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate home mortgage was 6.11% as of March 12, 2026. This marks the largest weekly increase since April 2025, climbing from 6.00% the previous week.

From Below 6% to Above: A Recent Shift

The average rate had briefly fallen below 6% at the end of February 2026, reaching 5.98% – a level not seen since September 2022. However, the escalation of tensions in the Middle East has reversed this trend, pushing rates upward.

Treasury Yields and Mortgage Rates

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, a key benchmark for mortgage rates, has also increased. Before the conflict, it was below 4%, but has since risen to 4.25% as of March 12, 2026. This correlation between Treasury yields and mortgage rates is a standard dynamic in the financial markets.

Impact on the Housing Market

Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, suggests that continued increases in interest rates could lead potential homebuyers to adopt a wait-and-notice approach. The ongoing conflict and its economic implications are creating uncertainty in the housing market.

Ongoing Conflict Details

The current conflict began on February 28, 2026, with surprise airstrikes launched by Israel and the United States on multiple sites across Iran. The conflict has resulted in casualties on both sides, including US service members and Iranian civilians, and has expanded to involve other regional actors, such as Hezbollah and the Popular Mobilization Forces.