The number of diesel passenger cars on Dutch roads has fallen from nearly 1.4 million a decade ago to approximately 560,000 today, according to data from the automotive trade association Bovag. High fuel prices and environmental restrictions have caused the secondary market for these vehicles to collapse, as reported by NOS.
Diesel prices exceed gasoline costs
A primary driver of the decline is the shift in fuel pricing. Diesel has recently become more expensive than gasoline, erasing the traditional financial advantage for high-mileage drivers. NOS reports that the current recommended price for diesel is approximately €2.77 per liter, compared to €2.71 for gasoline.
This represents a sharp increase from pre-war levels. Before the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran began in late February, the recommended price for diesel was roughly €2.03, while gasoline sat at €2.26. Niels Oude Luttikhuis, owner of the brokerage site ikwilvanmijnautoaf.nl, stated that the record-high prices have made driving a diesel “totally not interesting.”
Diesel resale values plummet as dealer inventory grows
The lack of demand is creating a surplus of diesel vehicles that dealers struggle to sell. A spokesperson for Bovag noted that used diesels are sitting on dealer lots for longer periods. The residual value of these cars has plummeted; for a five-year-old diesel, the value has dropped from 31% to 15% over the last ten years.
As a concrete example, Bovag points to a Volkswagen Golf diesel purchased new in 2021 for €34,500. With 200,000 kilometers on the odometer, that same vehicle is now valued at approximately €5,200.
Higher taxes and urban zones discourage diesel ownership
Financial pressure extends beyond the pump. Diesel vehicles in the Netherlands generally incur higher road taxes than comparable gasoline cars due to their heavier engine weight. Since 2020, certain diesel models have been hit with an additional particulate matter surcharge on road tax because of their pollution levels.
Urban restrictions further discourage ownership. Many cities have implemented environmental zones that ban older diesel cars from entering. Oude Luttikhuis describes the diesel passenger car as an “extinct race,” though he acknowledges that some enthusiasts may return if prices normalize.
Tightening export markets drive older diesels to scrap yards
Older diesel vehicles, specifically those around 20 years old, are primarily being sent to scrap yards. While export markets previously absorbed much of the surplus, those channels are tightening. Oude Luttikhuis noted that exports to Ukraine and Poland have decreased due to the war. However, Toyota diesels continue to find buyers in African countries where the brand remains popular. Bovag figures show that nearly 600,000 used diesels were exported over the last five years.
Commercial diesel use remains dominant
Despite the collapse of the passenger market, diesel remains a staple of Dutch transport. Until 2023, more diesel than gasoline was pumped at stations because the vast majority of trucks, buses, and delivery vans still rely on the fuel. These heavy vehicles are high-volume consumers that maintain steady demand.
Because of this commercial necessity, fuel stations are not removing diesel pumps. A spokesperson for Drive, the trade organization for independent gas stations, stated they have not heard of any stations stopping the offer of diesel.
Common questions about the Dutch diesel market
Why are diesel cars specifically targeted by road tax?
Diesel cars are typically heavier than gasoline cars, particularly in the engine, which leads to higher base road taxes. Additionally, a particulate matter surcharge was introduced in 2020 to penalize more polluting models.
Which export markets are still active for diesel cars?
While exports to Poland and Ukraine have declined, Toyota diesel models remain popular and are frequently exported to various African nations.
Is diesel fuel disappearing from gas stations?
No. Because trucks and buses are still primary diesel users and high-volume consumers, Drive reports that stations are continuing to provide diesel pumps.
Ten years ago, nearly 1.4 million diesel passenger cars were registered in the Netherlands.
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