South Korean Won Outlook: Stability and Potential Strengthening in 2026

The South Korean won, which faced pressure nearing 1,500 won per US dollar in late 2025, has stabilized in early 2026 due to government intervention and improved supply and demand dynamics. Analysts predict the dollar-won exchange rate will fluctuate between 1,440 and 1,480 won after the Lunar New Year, with potential for strengthening contingent on factors like U.S. Interest rate cuts.

Recent Exchange Rate Fluctuations

The won experienced a significant decline, falling from around 1,300 won in September 2025 to exceeding 1,480 won by December 21, 2025, driven by foreign stock investments and expectations of a weakening won. Still, verbal intervention by South Korean foreign exchange authorities helped to stabilize the currency. As of February 13, 2026, the dollar-won exchange rate closed at 1,444.9 won, a notable calming from the beginning of the year’s volatility.

Analyst Predictions for 2026

Several heads of research centers at major South Korean securities companies anticipate the dollar-won exchange rate will remain within the 1,440 to 1,480 won range following the Lunar New Year.

• NH Investment & Securities: Jo Soo-hong, head of the NH Investment & Securities Research Center, notes a less intense rise in the exchange rate compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, attributing this to factors like strong dollar supply from semiconductor exports, a robust KOSPI, and inclusion in the World Government Bond Index (WGBI). They forecast an annual average exchange rate in the mid-1,400 won range.
• KB Securities: Kim Dong-won, head of research at KB Securities, highlights Trump policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks as limiting factors preventing further won weakening. They also predict a potential decline in the dollar-won exchange rate in the mid- to long-term due to investment fund flows and increased domestic stock allocations by the National Pension Service. A U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut could push the exchange rate below 1,440 won.
• Daishin Securities: Yang Ji-hwan, head of the Daishin Securities Research Center, suggests the won’s strength is a positive factor for foreign investment in the long term, though the correlation between the exchange rate and foreign supply and demand has weakened due to global passive funds.
• Meritz Securities: Lee Jin-woo, head of the research center at Meritz Securities, believes a high exchange rate won’t deter foreign investment in the domestic stock market, emphasizing the importance of individual company performance over exchange rate levels.
• LS Securities: Shin Jung-ho, head of the LS Securities Research Center, anticipates long-term won strengthening based on economic fundamentals, despite potential short-term volatility.

Impact on the Stock Market

Exchange rate fluctuations are expected to have a layered impact on the domestic stock market. A weaker won generally benefits export-oriented sectors like semiconductors and shipbuilding, while a stronger won positively impacts domestic industries and economically sensitive sectors such as aviation, steel, and chemicals.

Woori Financial Group Leadership

Recent changes at Woori Financial Group include the appointment of internal control experts to the board of directors as reported by The Chosun Ilbo. Jong-Yong Yim remains Chairman & CEO of Woori Financial Group. Park Jeong-hoon is the new CEO of Woori Financial Research Institute, officially inaugurated on February 1, 2026 according to Asiae.co.kr.

Key Takeaways

• The South Korean won has stabilized after a period of volatility.
• Analysts predict a trading range of 1,440 to 1,480 won for the near term.
• Potential for won strengthening exists with U.S. Interest rate cuts and increased investment flows.
• Exchange rate fluctuations will impact various sectors of the South Korean stock market.