The European Union risks missing its baseline 2030 renewable electricity targets by 5.3 percentage points, according to an analysis published by Wood Mackenzie. The projections show the 27-member bloc reaching a 63.7% renewable share in the power sector by the end of the decade, falling short of both the 65% target under the Fit-for-55 package and the 69% objective outlined in the REPowerEU plan, as reported by [rinnovabili.it].
Data Center Demand and Offshore Wind Setbacks Force Reliance on Natural Gas
The shortfall stems from a combination of rising electricity consumption and structural supply bottlenecks. Wood Mackenzie estimates that European electricity demand will reach 4,103 TWh in 2030, marking an 11% increase compared to 2025 levels, driven in the near term by the rapid expansion of data centers. At the same time, a slowdown in offshore wind capacity development has created an electricity supply deficit. To bridge this gap, natural gas will play a longer role than previously anticipated, with European gas-fired power generation projected to average 6% higher between 2026 and 2040 than earlier forecasts suggested, as detailed by [repubblica.it]. Gas capacity will expand by 5% to reach 273 GW by 2030, functioning primarily as a flexible backup rather than a volume source as utilization rates drop from 27% to 22%.
EU must accelerate renewable growth to hit targets
The transition across the continent is proceeding at an uneven pace. Official Eurostat statistics published in July place the EU’s share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption at 26.2% for 2025, up from 25.2% in 2024, as reported by [energiagreen24.it]. Energy policy journalist Sara Colombo noted in [energiagreen24.it] that the EU must accelerate its annual renewable growth by 3.3 percentage points between 2026 and 2030 to hit its legally binding target of 42.5%. Individual countries display stark contrasts, with Sweden leading the bloc by sourcing 65.4% of its final energy consumption from renewables.
Photovoltaic and battery storage capacity will scale rapidly
Despite the looming targets gap, renewable installations continue to scale rapidly. Photovoltaic capacity across the 35 markets analyzed by Wood Mackenzie is projected to nearly double to 637 GW by 2030, with roughly 61 GW added annually. Onshore wind is set to reach 346 GW, while offshore wind will climb to 73 GW by 2030. Battery storage is experiencing the fastest expansion, with total capacity expected to surge from 47 GW to 163 GW by 2030. Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Poland will account for more than half of this storage growth.
Frequently Asked Questions About Europe’s 2030 Renewable Targets
Why are European renewable targets falling behind despite record solar installations?
While solar installations grew from 303 GW at the end of 2024 to 359 GW, total electricity demand is accelerating faster than anticipated due to data centers, and structural delays in offshore wind deployment have left a generation deficit that renewables alone cannot immediately cover, according to [rinnovabili.it].
Which countries are leading the European Union in renewable energy adoption?
Sweden leads the bloc significantly, generating 65.4% of its gross final energy consumption from renewables, which is more than double the European Union average of 26.2% recorded for 2025, as reported by [energiagreen24.it].
How will natural gas fit into Europe’s energy mix if renewable capacity increases?
Natural gas will remain in the system primarily as a flexible backup source to stabilize the grid when intermittent renewable output drops, with European gas-fired generation expected to average 6% higher between 2026 and 2040 compared to prior expectations, according to [repubblica.it].
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