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Actuaries predicted in 2025 that the global economy could face a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090 from catastrophic climate shocks, far higher than previously estimated.
The new report drew on expert judgments from 68 climate scientists from research institutions and government agencies in the UK, US, China and nine other countries. A key finding was that while economic modelling traditionally links climate damages to changes in average temperatures, societies and markets suffer moast from extremes, such as heatwaves, floods and droughts.
Another finding was that GDP can mask the full cost of climate damage by failing to account for deaths and ill health, social disruption and degraded ecosystems.GDP can actually increase after disasters owing to spending on recovery, the researchers added.
They said that rather than waiting for perfect models of risk, greater emphasis should be placed on extremes, not just central estimates, and on the vulnerability of the entire financial system. Investors should also speed up the move away from fossil fuels as a fiduciary duty
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