Okay, hear’s a breakdown of teh key information from the provided text, formatted for clarity. This summarizes the rules for resolving the prediction market:
Market Question:
Will Russia capture the intersection at 48.494433° N, 37.377320° E in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET?
Resolution criteria (“Yes”):
* ISW Map: Any part of the intersection must be shaded red on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Specifically, the shading must be one of these categories:
* “Assessed Russian Control”
* “Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine”
* “Assessed Russian Gains in the past 24 Hours”
* Persistence: The red shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, it must persist until the next finalized update.
* Negotiated Settlement: If Russia gains control of the intersection as an inevitable result of a negotiated settlement (actual control established, not just an announcement of de jure control), the market resolves to “Yes”.
Resolution Criteria (“No”):
* The intersection is not shaded red on the ISW map by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Significant Notes:
* Loss of Control: Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control does not affect the resolution.
* “Infiltration” Doesn’t Count: “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” shading does not qualify as control.
* Data Sources:
* Primary: ISW Ukraine map.
* Secondary (if ISW unavailable): DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/).
* Tertiary (if both unavailable): Consensus of credible reporting.
* Glitches: Temporary map errors will be ignored.
Missing Information (from the text):
The text mentions links to:
* Intersection Location
* Intersection Location in Sofiivka
* Sofiivka Location
* Location on Google Maps
But the links themselves are missing/empty in the provided text.
Let me know if you’d like me to elaborate on any specific aspect of these rules.
Worth a look