Asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit the Moon in 2032. Although a direct collision with the Earth is already ruled out according to scientists, the effects of a possible impact on the Earth’s natural satellite could be observable from our planet as well — and according to experts, it would be an extraordinary event in the history of astronomy. Even according to the new study, the probability is not high, but according to the scientists, it cannot yet be ruled out.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 with a diameter of about 60 meters is one of the most discussed space objects, especially in recent months. Initially, there were fears that it could hit our planet, but astronomers now reject them. But there is still a possibility that a body will crash into the Moon in 2032 — and even such a collision would not be without consequences.
According to new and not yet reviewed study of Chinese scientists, which is also reported in the newspaper, for example Bildthe probability of a lunar strike is approximately 4.3 percent. If it were to occur, it would release energy equivalent to about 6.5 megatons of TNT, a force comparable to a hydrogen bomb.
Extremely bright flash and tremors of the moon
The impact would have left a crater approximately one square kilometer in size on the surface of the moon. According to scientists, this would be an unprecedented event in the history of human observations.
“Such an event would have left a crater on the moon with an area of approximately one square kilometer and would be the most energetically significant lunar phenomenon ever recorded by humans,” Yifan He and colleagues from Beijing’s Tsinghua University report. According to them, it would be a certain risk, but at the same time a “rare and extremely valuable scientific opportunity”.
Scientists expect that the impact would produce an extremely bright flash lasting several minutes. It could be visible with the naked eye from Earth under favorable conditions. This should be followed by several hours of infrared illumination. In addition, the rapid cooling of the molten rock would release the energy that causes tremors — so-called moonquakes.
Can debris fall to Earth?
The simulations also suggest that up to 100 million kilograms of lunar material could escape the Moon’s gravity. According to calculations, a small part of these fragments could travel all the way to Earth. It is also not excluded that part of the debris will return to the surface of the moon after a few months.
If the impact were to occur, it could occur on December 22, 2032 around 16:00 CET. The best viewing conditions would be in eastern Asia, over the Pacific Ocean and in the western US, where it would be night and the moon would be high above the horizon at the time, the researchers said.
It was because of these fragments and debris after impacting the moon, among other things, that the authors of one of the earlier studies even considered whether the asteroid should be detonated with a nuclear bomb. However, this would entail significant risks. We wrote more about it here.
date:2026-02-07 10:49:00
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