Updated Feb. 10, 2026, 10:26 a.m. ET
One powerhouse. And a whole lot of parity.
That figures to be the theme throughout what should be a tightly bunched Major League Baseball season, and USA TODAY Sports’ projected win totals for 2026 reflect as much.
Our five-person panel’s aggregate rankings suggest it will be another late September of scoreboard-watching, tiebreaker-computation, gut-wrenching baseball as the season enters its final stretch.
Except, perhaps, for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
They’re projected to win the National League West by eight games, though that will guarantee them little once October comes around and they seek a third consecutive World Series crown. And they’re projected to win “just” 98 games, the panel pegging them for anywhere from 93 to 104 wins.
But that’s why they play the games, right? A look at our panel’s aggregate record projections as spring training gets underway:
AL East
Table of Contents
Here comes another coin toss between the Toronto Blue Jays (91-71) and New York Yankees (90-72). The biggest question in this loaded division: How much will the Blue Jays miss Bo Bichette? … The odds favor the Baltimore Orioles (85-77) returning to the playoffs, even if they may be one starter short, but flush with a Polar Bear. … Did the Boston Red Sox (84-78) throw enough into the pot as the price of poker keeps going up in this division? The pitching is as admirably deep as the lineup is questionable. … The Tampa Bay Rays (76-86) rearranged an awful lot (Gavin Lux, Cedric Mullins and Nick Martinez are in, Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe and Shane Baz out) and are projected to backslide by one whole game.
AL Central
The surprise Framber Valdez signing likely iced the division for the Detroit Tigers (90-72), though a very streaky offensive group returns intact for a club that blew a 14-game division lead. … Could the Cleveland Guardians (83-79) capitalize on a similar swoon this year? Most of their division-winning group is back, though they’ll be counting on rookie Chase DeLauter to stay healthy and contribute. … A healthy Cole Ragans will go a long way toward the Kansas City Royals (83-79) getting back in contention, but they’ll need behemoth slugger Jac Caglianone to stick and ensure the lineup extends more than four deep. … Can the Chicago White Sox (67-95) avoid 100 losses for the first time since 2022? Many eyes will be on them if only to see whether Munetaka Murakami will be worth far more than the $34 million required to sign him. … Hard to believe the Minnesota Twins (65-97) could supplant the White Sox in the cellar with Joe Ryan and Pablo López still around. Then again, maybe they won’t be in July.
AL West
Acquiring Brendan Donovan filled the last significant hole on the roster and established the Seattle Mariners (92-70) as AL favorites, one year after they fell eight outs shy of their first World Series. … The Texas Rangers (86-76) moved the furniture around quite a bit and burned some prospect capital to reel in MacKenzie Gore, who, should he find elusive consistency, may form a dominant 1-2-3 behind Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom. … Are the Houston Astros (84-78) settled for the spring, even as they’re infield-deep and outfield-thin? Regardless, the Tatsuya Imai-for-Framber Valdez swap may determine their fate. … The Athletics (76-86) return for their second of three seasons in Yolo County with half their lineup (Brent Rooker, Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler) locked into long-term deals. Pitching, though, may not enable them to take the next step. … A third consecutive last-place finish is projected for the Los Angeles Angels (72-90), who are nonetheless projected to have nine players between the ages of 33 and 39 on the active roster.
NL East
Since when did the annual playoff runs for the Philadelphia Phillies (92-70) go from a joyous exercise to a Sisyphean slog? Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto are back along with the rest of the gang (though soon minus Nick Castellanos). One of these years, it will click. … Your January probably wasn’t as productive as David Stearns’s, and for that reason the New York Mets (87-75) are once again World Series contenders. So long as they stay healthy, watching Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Bo Bichette align at the top of the lineup will be a treat. … Are the Atlanta Braves (84-78) perpetually gone for good from the elite and in perpetual hope-for-the-best mode come October? GM Alex Anthopoulos generally doesn’t get stuck in the middle, but they’re light on starting pitching and will be missing shortstop Ha-Seong Kim for a minute. … What does a next step look like for the Miami Marlins (79-83)? One of baseball’s best teams since late June didn’t significantly augment, unless hitting prospect Owen Caissie is ready to rake from the jump. … It could get pretty bad for the Washington Nationals (62-100), who are rightfully rebuilding (again), traded MacKenzie Gore and added virtually nothing externally.
NL Central
If Alex Bregman can’t get the Chicago Cubs (88-74) over The Brewers Hump, nothing likely can. The Cubs haven’t won the Central in a full season since 2017 and Bregman has never missed the playoffs in his 10 full seasons. … Of course, the Milwaukee Brewers (87-75) did their part to come back to the pack, dealing ace Freddy Peralta and spinning off reliever Tobias Myers, infielder Caleb Durbin and outfielder Isaac Collins. Yet it always seems to work out, doesn’t it? … The Cincinnati Reds (83-79) ducked into the postseason field on the final day of the season and we’ve got ‘em right on the bubble again. Will the good vibes only that Eugenio Suárez provides be enough in an otherwise still offseason? … It was a winter of relative aggression and even a little success for the Pittsburgh Pirates (74-88), who added some sentient bats at reasonable prices. Enough to click with an increasingly nasty pitching staff? We’ll see. … They stripped the roster as promised, but how ugly will it get for the St. Louis Cardinals (68-94)? There will be rays of light as young players get their cracks, with infielder JJ Wetherholt the most anticipated arrival.
NL West
What does $550 million in payroll and penalties buy you these days? The Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64) hope it at least ensures a 13th division title in 14 years. Have they mastered the art of getting their pitchers fresh and safe to October? We’ll see. … The San Diego Padres (85-77) remain active even if the salary bacchanalia from a few years ago has ended. If Michael King stays healthy all year they are a threat. … Will Tony Vitello be the shock paddle that jolts the San Francisco Giants away from their addiction to the .500 mark? Probably not. … In coming weeks, Arizona Diamondbacks (80-82) corner infielders Nolan Arenado and Carlos Santana will turn 35 and 40, respectively. They’ll need some gulps from the fountain of youth to ensure the bottom of the lineup isn’t an arid wasteland. … We won’t yet call it a plan, but the Colorado Rockies (57-105) do have the semblance of a plan with brand new upper management. Yet even purposeful lab experiments might look ugly in the win-loss column.
date: 2026-02-10 15:05:00
Related reading