Merz’s Beijing Trip: A Test of Europe’s China Strategy

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to Beijing on February 24, 2026, arrives at a critical juncture in Sino-European relations. As China seeks to present a stable alternative to a potentially turbulent global order shaped by the United States under President Donald Trump, Merz’s trip is less a routine bilateral visit and more a pivotal moment for Europe to define its approach to China – one of assertive recalibration or continued economic drift.

From ‘Wandel durch Handel’ to a Strategic Headache

For years, Germany championed closer ties with China, prioritizing economic engagement under the banner of Wandel durch Handel (change through trade). This approach, which downplayed human rights concerns in favor of economic benefits, saw German industrial giants like Volkswagen and BASF make substantial investments in the Chinese market. However, this strategy is now facing increasing scrutiny.

The trade relationship has dramatically shifted, resulting in a €90 billion trade deficit for Germany in 2025 [Politico]. This deficit is widely blamed for contributing to job losses in Germany’s manufacturing sector, currently estimated at roughly 10,000 per month [Politico]. This situation increasingly resembles Germany’s previous over-reliance on Russian energy, a miscalculation that became starkly apparent following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Navigating a Complex Geopolitical Landscape

Merz’s visit occurs against a backdrop of heightened transatlantic tensions and Beijing’s efforts to position itself as a more reliable partner than Washington. China is actively seeking support from other nations to counter challenges from the U.S. To international rules and organizations [Kiro7]. However, Merz has expressed reservations about China’s vision for the international order.

A key concern for Germany is China’s stance on the war in Ukraine. While China claims to maintain an “objective and impartial position,” this stance is at odds with Germany and much of Europe [Kiro7]. Merz is expected to raise this issue during his meetings with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping, though no significant change in China’s position is anticipated [Kiro7].

The Necessitate for a More Assertive European Strategy

Experts argue that Merz’s trip presents an opportunity to shift the narrative and set the political preconditions for a more assertive European China strategy. The current approach, characterized by a lack of coordination and scattered initiatives, is insufficient to address the challenges posed by China’s economic practices and geopolitical ambitions [DW].

To effectively address these challenges, Europe should:

• Develop a comprehensive “level playing field” package: Consolidate existing initiatives – such as the Industrial Accelerator Act, the economic security doctrine, and Foreign Subsidies Regulation investigations – into a coherent plan.
• Coordinate with like-minded economies: Align approaches to trade defense, procurement, and economic security with other major economies facing similar challenges from China.
• Establish clear red lines: Signal to China that Europe will defend its industrial future and utilize anti-coercion instruments if necessary.

Key Takeaways

• Germany’s economic relationship with China has shifted dramatically, resulting in a significant trade deficit and job losses.
• Merz’s visit to Beijing is a crucial moment for Europe to define its China strategy.
• A more assertive European approach is needed to address China’s economic practices and geopolitical ambitions.
• Coordination with other major economies is essential to effectively counter unfair Chinese competition.

the success of Merz’s trip will not be measured by immediate breakthroughs but by its ability to lay the groundwork for a more sustainable and strategically sound European approach to China. The stakes are high, as the future of European industrial competitiveness and security hangs in the balance.