S&P Global Warns of Rising Fiscal Risks for Indonesia

Jakarta – S&P Global Ratings has cautioned that increasing fiscal pressures, particularly escalating debt servicing costs, are amplifying downside risks to Indonesia’s credit profile. These pressures could potentially trigger negative rating actions, according to a recent analysis.

Rising Debt Servicing Costs

Interest payments “very likely” exceeded the critical threshold of 15% of government revenue in the previous year, stated Rain Yin, a sovereign analyst at S&P Global Ratings, during an online webinar focused on the Asia Pacific region Bloomberg News reported. Sustained levels above this threshold could lead to a more negative outlook on Indonesia’s credit rating.

Stable Rating, Growing Concerns

While S&P has maintained a stable outlook on Indonesia’s BBB credit rating, the agency’s comments reflect growing concerns regarding the nation’s fiscal health. This follows a similar move by Moody’s Ratings earlier in February, which shifted its outlook on Indonesia’s Baa2 rating to negative from stable, citing weakening governance and increasing fiscal risks under the administration of President Prabowo Subianto.

BNI’s Role in Economic Synergies

Despite these concerns, Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) continues to play a strategic role in fostering synergies between Indonesia’s economic potential and international markets, while simultaneously strengthening the national economy as outlined in their 2025 Annual Report.

Economic Indicators

Recent economic data from November 2025, as highlighted at the Bloomberg Technoz Ecoverse 2025 forum, indicated a challenge in early economic recovery. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for November registered at 49.7 according to Kiwoom Securities Indonesia.

S&P’s Ongoing Review

S&P Dow Jones Indices is currently monitoring developments regarding stock ownership transparency in Indonesia and will proceed with its review, even as other rating agencies have paused their assessments Bloomberg reported on February 15, 2026.

Indonesia’s credit rating remains affirmed at ‘BBB/A-2’ with a stable outlook by S&P Global as stated by S&P Global.