El Niño Watch: Will the Climate Pattern Fuel Bigger Surf This Winter?

The circumstances surrounding an El Niño are complex, stemming from a chain reaction of events in the Pacific Ocean. With the last major El Niño event ending in April 2024, are we poised for a winter significantly impacted by this climate anomaly? Currently, the ENSO cycle is in its La Niña phase, but a shift is anticipated.

Understanding the ENSO Cycle

To understand El Niño, it’s critical to know about the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This cycle describes the fluctuations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, alternating between cooling (La Niña) and warming (El Niño) phases. A neutral phase exists where temperatures are neither warming nor cooling. These phases generally fluctuate every two to seven years. National Weather Service reports a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral in the next month or two, with weakening subsurface temperature anomalies.

El Niño and Surf Conditions

Generally, El Niño conditions correlate with larger, more consistent swells for the U.S. West Coast and Hawaii. Conversely, La Niña often brings less consistent surf due to increased high-pressure systems that can block storms. However, La Niña can lead to more easterly swell for Australia, potentially improving surf conditions there.

What Causes El Niño?

Surf forecaster Tony Butt explains that El Niño begins with the weakening of trade winds in the South Pacific. “When they weaken, it allows the water to warm up, creating a warm pool of water. This then starts to drift across the Pacific and eventually up towards Japan.” This warming significantly alters the jet stream and impacts circulation patterns, potentially pulling the jet stream south and altering storm tracks towards the U.S. And Hawaii. These storms can grow more powerful during El Niño years.

Is an El Niño Event Developing This Year?

While it’s still early to definitively predict an El Niño event, current indicators suggest a possibility. The weakening of trade winds, the first sign of El Niño, typically occurs in the springtime, around April. If this weakening occurs, it will take months for an El Niño to fully develop, potentially impacting the 2026 winter season.

NOAA’s latest ENSO status report, published earlier this month, indicates a 50-60% chance of an El Niño season developing. NOAA Climate.gov notes that a transition to ENSO-neutral is expected in February-April 2026 (60% chance), with a 56% chance of remaining neutral through the Northern Hemisphere summer. The report also highlights a significant increase in equatorial subsurface temperatures.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average predicts the onset of ENSO-neutral conditions in February-April 2026, a consensus shared by the forecasting team. Beyond the summer, there’s a 50-60% chance of El Niño forming, though model uncertainty remains.

Historical Context: Strong El Niño Events

NOAA highlights the 1997/1998 and 1982/1983 El Niño events as particularly strong, producing record-breaking storms and significant surf along the U.S. West Coast. These events were characterized by strong winds and substantial fetch, creating baroclinic instability and persistent convective energy that extended across the Pacific and even into the U.S. East Coast.

Notable Swells During the Last El Niño

During the recent El Niño, Maverick’s experienced a significant swell on December 28, 2023, with standout rides from surfers like Jojo Roper. In November 2023, Steve Roberson tackled Jaws with impressive determination and Molly Picklum and Caity Simmers delivered remarkable performances at Pipeline in February 2024, with Simmers’ quote, “Pipeline’s for the fucking girls,” becoming iconic.

We will continue to update this piece as climate drivers evolve.