Day 18 of the US-Israel War with Iran: Escalation and Uncertainties

As the conflict between the US and Israel against Iran enters its eighteenth day, the situation continues to escalate with significant implications for the Middle East and global energy markets. The war, initiated with US and Israeli strikes on multiple Iranian cities on February 28th, including the capital Tehran, has seen Iran retaliate with missile attacks targeting Israel and regional US bases. The initial strike resulted in the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei succeeding him.

The Continued Killing of Iranian Leaders and Potential for Escalation

The recent deaths of Ali Larijani, Iran’s security chief, and Gholamreza Soleimani, head of Iran’s Basij paramilitary forces, represent a significant escalation. These killings, following the assassination of Ali Khamenei, are likely to further radicalize the Iranian regime rather than weaken its resolve. The current leadership, particularly the fresh Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, is untested and may adopt a more hardline stance. The strategy of decapitating the leadership, historically, has not proven effective, often leading to fragmentation and the persistence of organizations like Al-Qaeda and the Taliban.

Potential War Scenarios and the Importance of the Endgame

The manner in which this war concludes will fundamentally shape the future of the Middle East. Three potential scenarios exist: a US-claimed victory with continued conflict, a negotiated settlement, or a protracted attrition war. The latter, characterized by diminishing US interest, opportunistic Israeli strikes, and Iranian asymmetric warfare – focusing on degrading Gulf infrastructure and disrupting economies – appears increasingly likely. Israel’s domestic political incentives, and lack of trust in commitments, further complicate the path towards a resolution.

The Strait of Hormuz: A Critical Flashpoint

Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to its adversaries, disrupting shipping and causing oil prices to surge. This action challenges the long-held belief that Iran would avoid closing the strait due to the widespread economic costs. However, a regime fighting for survival may prioritize different calculations. Iran has indicated a willingness to discuss safe passage for countries willing to negotiate, effectively turning Hormuz into a bargaining chip.

Economic Repercussions and Impact on India

The war is already impacting global economies, with rising energy prices and disruptions to trade routes. For India, this includes rising energy costs and challenges to the Chabahar port project, a billion-dollar investment now located within an active conflict zone. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is too jeopardized, as its viability depended on a stable Gulf region. The Indian diaspora in the Gulf is directly affected by airspace closures and missile intercepts.

Expanding Theatre of Operations: The Indian Ocean

The sinking of the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena by a US submarine off the coast of Sri Lanka has expanded the theatre of war to the Indian Ocean. This incident, occurring shortly after the vessel participated in a multinational naval exercise in India, has raised concerns about India’s position as a security provider in the region. Attacks on Dubai, Fujairah, and numerous vessel incidents in the Persian Gulf, Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman further underscore the escalating tensions.

Shifting Regional Power Dynamics

The conflict is likely to hinder the establishment of a stable, Washington-aligned Middle East. It may lead to ungoverned spaces, increased Chinese economic influence, and a resurgence of Russian relevance. China is adopting a strategy of maximum options with minimal commitment, while Russia is poised to regain influence as Western attention shifts. The rise of decentralized Shia networks, operating outside direct Iranian control, also presents a long-term challenge.

International Politics and the Limits of Existing Institutions

The war has exposed weaknesses in international institutions and arrangements. State solidarity has proven insufficient, formal defense agreements have not been activated, and third-party mediation efforts have failed. The UN has been largely ineffective. The US-Israel relationship, however, has remained strong, driven by domestic political considerations and the influence of the Israeli lobby in the US.

The Future of BRICS

The BRICS grouping is facing internal contradictions as member states are directly involved in the conflict, both as targets of attacks and as aggressors. The organization’s ability to present a united front is compromised, and its claim as an alternative to Western-led unipolarity is undermined.

India’s Response and Path Forward

India needs to adopt a more proactive strategy. This includes allowing parliamentary discussion on the conflict, maintaining a quiet diplomatic channel with Iran, taking a public position on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and forging partnerships to address regional maritime security. India’s studied ambiguity is no longer sustainable.