A military confrontation between Israel and Turkey is highly unlikely despite Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s long-term strategy of regional expansion, according to former Mossad counterterrorism division head Oded Eilam. Speaking in a radio interview on Friday, Eilam stated that neither side is interested in a direct war at this time, characterizing Ankara’s approach as a multiyear plan of creeping annexation rather than a push for immediate open conflict.
Strategic Assessment of Regional Expansion
According to Oded Eilam’s interview on 103FM, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is executing an organized, multiyear strategy across multiple regions. Eilam noted that this plan targets areas in Libya, Somalia, Africa, and Gaza. The former Mossad official asserted that Erdoğan is not nostalgically longing for the Ottoman era, but rather pursuing a calculated policy of creeping annexation without jeopardizing his gains through a direct clash with Israel.
“The answer is unequivocally no, for the simple reason that neither side is interested in a military confrontation, certainly not at the present time,” Eilam said. He added that Erdoğan recognizes Israeli power and typically dances a tango of “two steps forward and one step back” rather than rushing into battle.
Parallel assessments from the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs highlight additional diplomatic dimensions. Sagiv Asulin, a former senior Mossad official and researcher at the center, warns that Turkey is seeking to lead the Sunni axis alongside Qatar. Asulin argues that Turkey’s growing military capabilities, paired with Qatari influence and information warfare, present a strategic threat that requires sustained diplomatic pressure on Washington from Israeli officials.
Boundaries in Syria and Naval Power
Eilam pointed to recent Israeli actions in Syria as an effective mechanism for establishing clear boundaries between the two regional powers. According to the former counterterror chief, an Israeli strike in Syria successfully blocked an attempt by Turkey to introduce an advanced system that would have disrupted Israeli Air Force flights toward Iran.
At the same time, security analysts emphasize Turkey’s rising maritime strength. Eilam described the Turkish navy as the most impressive in the Mediterranean, suggesting its reach extends beyond Bulgaria and Greece to pose a threat to Europe to a certain extent.
European Leverage and Refugee Control
Beyond direct military positioning, Eilam outlined the structural leverage Turkey maintains over European nations. Ankara controls a critical gateway for refugees, receiving annual payments ranging between $200 million and $250 million to host displaced populations and prevent them from crossing into Europe. European capitals remain terrified, while American policy toward Ankara often balances competing strategic partnerships in the region.
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