Bitcoin has confirmed its first golden cross since November 2025, with the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average, according to market data highlighted by Watcher Guru on September 9. This classic technical bullish signal, combined with roughly 3.8 billion dollars in exchange-traded fund inflows, has renewed market speculation surrounding a potential return to the milestone.
Historical Patterns and ETF Inflows Fuel Optimism
Past market behavior provides a historical precedent for the current golden cross. According to data tracked by Watcher Guru, the last three occurrences of the golden cross were followed by significant rallies of 50%, 45%, and 60% respectively. Complementing this technical indicator, cumulative ETF inflows have climbed to approximately 3.8 billion dollars, creating sustained buying pressure that analysts view as a primary catalyst for potential upside movement.
Immediate Technical Resistance Levels
Despite the positive moving average crossover, Bitcoin faces a formidable price ceiling in the short term. The asset encounters strong resistance in the 79,000 to 81,000 dollar range. The broader market rally began in late August, following a speech by U.S. President Donald Trump at a White House cryptocurrency event where he announced plans for the United States to purchase large amounts of digital assets. That upward momentum was further reinforced by the U.S.
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Complicates the Outlook
Federal Reserve policy decisions introduce conflicting pressures for cryptocurrency investors heading deeper into September. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated earlier in the month that the central bank could pause interest rate hikes if inflation indicators remain stable, providing an immediate boost to digital asset prices. Conversely, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a hawkish stance during his Jackson Hole speech last month, repeatedly emphasizing the ongoing risks of persistent inflation.
Weighing on the economic outlook, recent August employment data missed market expectations, increasing the likelihood that policymakers will enact a 25-basis-point rate hike. According to Watcher Guru, tighter monetary policy could stall Bitcoin’s momentum as it attempts to break through structural resistance and recapture the threshold. Navigating these macroeconomic headwinds while clearing the 81,000 dollar resistance zone remains the primary test for the cryptocurrency’s near-term trajectory.
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