The 12-month Euribor has climbed above 3.1% in its daily rate for six consecutive sessions, reaching levels not seen since August 2024. According to calculations by Europa Press, this sustained increase could drive the largest mortgage cost hikes seen in three years.
European Central Bank Rate Hike Drives Market Response
The upward movement follows a monetary policy decision by the European Central Bank (ECB). According to institutional announcements, the central bank raised the price of money by 25 basis points.
At the same time, the ECB left its 2026 inflation estimate unchanged at 3%, which sits 100 basis points above the institution’s official target. However, the central bank upgraded its economic growth projections for 2026 and 2027 while keeping its previous forecasts for 2028 steady.
Financial markets priced in these adjustments ahead of the official announcement. “We are seeing how the Euribor already incorporates the ECB’s hike and the possibility of new increases,” said Roberto Gulias, chief executive officer of RN Tu Solución Hipotecaria. He noted that the market is anticipating monetary policy decisions, which will transfer directly to variable-rate mortgage payments coming up for review in the coming months.
Impact on Monthly Mortgage Payments
If the Euribor closes the month at a monthly average of 3.1%, it will represent a 92.8 basis point rise compared with September 2025. This marks the seventh month of year-on-year increases for the index and the sharpest upward shift since November 2023.
For a standard mortgage of 150,000 euros with a 30-year maturity term and a standard differential of 0.99%, a monthly average of 3.1% translates to an increase of 78.34 euros per month, or 940 euros per year, according to Europa Press calculations. Analysts note that this calculation represents the maximum level of ascent for a borrower at the very beginning of their loan term, where a larger principal balance means interest rate changes carry heavier financial weight.
“Both the Euribor and long-term rates have been anticipating this hike and even another one for weeks,” said Juan Villén, general manager of mortgages at Idealista. He added that commercial banks may use the environment to adjust their broader mortgage offerings upward.
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