Merck will pay up to $2.13 billion to China’s SciBrunch Therapeutics for the global rights to develop and sell SPR2015, an experimental oral cancer treatment targeting the KRAS G12D mutation. The deal includes an immediate $400 million upfront payment and up to $1.73 billion in potential milestone payments, according to statements from both companies.
Merck targets KRAS G12D mutations to diversify oncology pipeline
The acquisition of SPR2015 focuses on one of the most common cancer-driving mutations found in lung, colorectal, and pancreatic cancers. While the drug is currently in preclinical development and hasn’t entered human testing, the companies reported that preclinical data showed SPR2015 reduced tumor growth in laboratory and animal models of KRAS G12D-mutant cancers.
This move is part of a broader strategy to expand Merck’s oncology portfolio. The company faces upcoming patent expirations for Keytruda, its top-selling immunotherapy, later this decade.
Financial impact and market valuation of the licensing deal
Merck stated the transaction will result in a pre-tax charge of $400 million, which equates to approximately 13 cents per share in its third-quarter 2026 results.
Louise Chen, an analyst at Scotiabank, noted that Merck has visibility into more than $70 billion in commercial opportunity by the mid-2030s. This figure is more than double the Wall Street estimate of roughly $33 billion for Keytruda’s peak revenue in 2028.
Comparing SPR2015 development stages and financial terms
| Deal Component | Details |
|---|---|
| Total Potential Value | $2.13 billion |
| Upfront Payment | $400 million |
| Potential Milestones | $1.73 billion |
| Development Stage | Preclinical (No human testing yet) |
| Primary Target | KRAS G12D mutation |
Addressing the Keytruda patent cliff
The urgency of the SciBrunch deal stems from the “patent cliff” facing Keytruda. As the drug loses exclusivity, Merck must secure new, high-potential candidates like SPR2015 to maintain its revenue streams in the oncology market.
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