“One worry the committee might have is whether awarding it to someone could put them under pressure from Donald Trump… I think the committee will consider whether the award does more harm than good,” Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, told Reuters regarding the upcoming Nobel Peace Prize announcement scheduled for October 9, 2026. Donald Trump will not win this year’s Nobel Peace Prize as he wages war with Iran, according to experts surveyed by Reuters, but the awarding body will still feel the U.S. president’s influence following an unprecedented lobbying campaign and last year’s controversial medal transfer.
Norwegian Nobel Committee Weighs Political Pressure and Defense of the International System
The five-person adjudication panel faces intense scrutiny as it prepares to award the 125-year-old prize amid a record number of global conflicts. Haakon Gjerloew told Reuters that the committee will weigh whether giving the accolade to certain figures could invite undue pressure from Trump. Last year’s award went to Venezuelan opposition politician Maria Corina Machado, who subsequently gave her gold medal to Trump—an event that sparked widespread concern about potential stunts repeating.
Pope Leo and Canadian Prime Mark Carney Surface as Polarizing Contenders
Among the names circulating in prediction markets and expert discussions are figures whose selection would directly antagonize Trump. Pope Leo, the first U.S.-born pope, has clashed repeatedly with the American leader, particularly over the U.S. war with Iran. Trump called the pope “weak” for criticising the US conflict with Iran. Karim Haggag, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, told Reuters that the pope has emerged as a leading thought leader. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has also appeared prominently on prediction platforms. According to betting and prediction-market site Covers.com tracking Kalshi prices, Carney held a 14 percent implied chance of winning, while Trump’s implied chance sat near-zero. The U.S. and Canada remain locked in an escalating trade war that has pushed bilateral relations to historic lows, with Carney criticizing what he termed a rupture in the world order.
Trump Campaigns on Disputed Diplomatic Claims While Laureates Condemn Pressure
Trump’s own push for the prestigious accolade centered on his claim that he’d ended a series of wars around the world. When Trump failed to secure the prize last year, he blamed Norway, despite the committee’s complete independence from the Norwegian government. Filipino-American journalist Maria Ressa, a past Nobel Peace Prize laureate, condemned Trump’s lobbying efforts during a visit to Oslo, telling Reuters that she watched the events with horror and declaring that bullies do not run the world.
Frequently Asked Questions About the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize
When is the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner announced?
The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce this year’s laureate on October 9, 2026, in Oslo, Norway, according to Reuters reporting.
What prediction market standing did Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney hold?
According to betting and prediction-market site Covers.com tracking Kalshi prices, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney traded at a 14 percent implied chance of winning the prize, leading humanitarian organizations such as Doctors Without Borders and Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms in those specific market rankings cited by The Independent.
How many state-based armed conflicts were recorded recently?
A conflict trends report recorded 65 state-based armed conflicts in 2025, marking the highest number since records began in 1946.