Negotiations between Southeast Asian nations and Beijing over a code of conduct in the South China Sea face a critical deadline, with officials targeting a final text by November 10. ASEAN leaders are scheduled to host Chinese President Xi Jinping in Manila for the annual East Asia Summit, where the agreement aims to regulate behavior and reduce maritime confrontations across overlapping territorial claims.
China claims sovereignty over nearly 90 per cent of the South China Sea based on its historic rights, directly conflicting with the maritime boundaries of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia. While formal talks aim to establish stability, maritime incidents persist. These confrontations involve the ramming of boats, water cannons, lasers, and the deployment of fishing militias by competing claimant states, such as Vietnam’s own fishing militia.
China and Vietnam Build Military Outposts in Disputed Waters
Skepticism surrounds the diplomatic track as regional military buildups continue across disputed features. Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro stated in a May speech that China utilizes negotiations as a strategy to gain advantage rather than resolve conflicts, prompting Beijing to bar him from visiting China. Satellite imagery shows China has established 20 outposts in the Paracel Islands and seven in the Spratly Islands, alongside a constant coast guard presence at Scarborough Shoal. In response, Vietnam has constructed military facilities, including docks and a runway, on 21 features in the Spratlys.
The diplomatic framework traces back to 2002, when ASEAN and China signed a non-binding declaration on the conduct of parties in the South China Sea referencing the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). A decade ago, an UNCLOS court rejected China’s historic claims, creating a persistent legal clash between international law and Beijing’s traditional claims. Current negotiations seek to bypass binding dispute mechanisms while imposing rules on coast guard behavior and pushing to ban ASEAN from holding joint military exercises with outside powers like the United States.
During July ministerial talks, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on regional countries to accelerate consultations and keep the initiative within the region, while also criticizing elements within the Philippine military and police for creating maritime provocations. Conversely, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong voiced concern at the same meeting regarding destabilizing conduct, urging compliance with international law and safe conduct at sea and in the air.
Core Disputes Hinder Agreement on Code of Conduct
Malaysia estimated at the start of the year that 70 per cent of the code of conduct’s content has been agreed upon, leaving core disputes unresolved. Professor Carlyle Thayer of the University of New South Wales noted that contentious issues include geographic scope, legal status, self-restraint, and the role of external powers. Manila opposes any weak or non-binding code that entrenches China’s presence, while Beijing rejects restrictions on its coast guards and the Trump administration discourages terms limiting United States operations.
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