The S&P 500 has been riding a bull market for about four years, though nearly half of its constituent stocks are already sitting in bear market territory amid anxieties over artificial intelligence valuations. While a full-blown bear market lasts an average of 340 days according to data cited from Yardeni Research, historical figures show that patient investors who stay the course capture significantly greater long-term upside.
Historical Durations of Market Cycles
Conversely, bull markets run for an average of five to six years, lasting up to six times longer than their downturn counterparts. The average bull market gain reaches 210%, easily eclipsing the average 38% bear market drop. That contrast means investors who endure roughly a year of downward pressure position themselves to capture outsized gains over multi-year horizons.
The Cost of Missing Market Highs
Selling stocks during a downturn to seek safety often damages long-term portfolio performance. Data from JPMorgan Chase covering the period from March 2005 to March 2025 reveals that seven of the ten best market days occurred within two weeks of the ten worst days. Missing those seven top-performing days cuts a twenty-year return in half. A ten-thousand-dollar portfolio invested across that span grew to seventy thousand dollars, whereas missing those sessions left the same portfolio at less than thirty-five thousand dollars.
Stock Advisor picks outperform the S&P 500
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team recently identified ten stocks for investors to buy now, excluding the S&P 500 Index. Historical picks from the same analyst team demonstrate significant past performance, such as when Netflix appeared on the list on December 17, 2004, yielding $361,650 from a $1,000 investment at the time of recommendation. Similarly, when Nvidia made the list on April 15, 2005, a $1,000 investment would be worth $1,437,517. The Stock Advisor program maintains a total average return of 936%, outperforming the S&P 500 return of 213%.
Average lengths and gains of S&P 500 markets
How long does the average S&P 500 bear market last?
According to Yardeni Research, a full-blown bear market lasts an average of 340 days. Charles Schwab data indicates that since 1966, these downturns have averaged about 15 months with a 38% decline.
What is the average gain during an S&P 500 bull market?
Historical research from Charles Schwab shows that bull markets last an average of five to six years and produce an average gain of 210%.
How does missing the best market days affect long-term returns?
Research from JPMorgan Chase demonstrates that missing just seven of the ten best market days between March 2005 and March 2025 cuts a twenty-year return in half, reducing a ten-thousand-dollar investment from seventy thousand dollars down to less than thirty-five thousand dollars.
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