Surface temperatures are on track to exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold by 2030, the United Nations warned seven days after a glacier collapse caused devastating floods in Nepal.
As Australia arrives at the COP31 climate summit in Türkiye this week promoting its domestic emissions cuts, government data shows the coal and gas it exports now produce nearly 1,200 million tonnes of greenhouse gases when burned overseas—almost double the 681 million tonnes recorded in 2005, ABC News reported.
The 31st Conference of the Parties opens with Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen leading negotiations, while the government defends the recent approval of the BHP Saraji coal mine expansion—allowing 55 million more tonnes of coal for export until 2055—and the Beetaloo Basin gas project. “Australia is highly regarded when it comes to climate change,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said during a press conference in Palau.
Export Emissions Near Double
While Australia’s domestic emissions have fallen 25 per cent below 2005 levels and renewables supply almost half the national energy market, the Climate Council tracked 16 new coal mines or expansions approved since May 2022 and 11 new gas approvals.
Estimated emissions from exported fossil fuels reached almost 1,200 million tonnes for the 2025-26 financial year, according to calculations from the latest government data.
The government targets a 62 to 70 per cent reduction below 2005 levels by 2035 and hopes renewables will reach 82 per cent of the energy market by 2030.
High Court Draws Line on Scope 3
In October, the High Court ruled that NSW planning authorities must consider emissions from burning fossil fuels overseas when approving projects, calling the “scopes” distinction merely an “accounting concept.” The court said authorities must consider “all greenhouse gas emissions [including Scope 3 emissions]” and impose conditions to minimize them.
The decision aligns with a 2025 International Court of Justice advisory opinion, where London barrister Harj Narulla represented the Solomon Islands. Narulla said the court affirmed that “fossil fuel production, consumption, subsidies and licensing may be an internationally wrongful act” because it pushes the world past the 1.5-degree threshold.
Pacific Pressure Mounts
Activists from the Pacific Climate Warriors confronted BHP’s board at its annual general meeting in late October. Lyric Thomas-Pera, whose family in Fiji has been affected by climate change, asked whether the company was concerned about reputational risk from coal expansions.
“When you’re in a family, you don’t let another one down,” Thomas-Pera said, urging Australia to support Pacific nations rather than expand fossil fuel exports.
More than 500 Australian academics signed an open letter requesting the government end approvals for new or expanded coal, oil and gas projects.
COP31 Focuses on Electrification
At the summit in Türkiye, where Bowen leads negotiations, Australia will try to build consensus on electrification, with the conference focusing on 35 per cent by 2035 to capitalise on soaring fossil fuel costs caused by the war in Iran.
In a statement, Bowen’s spokesperson said Australia would work to unlock climate finance for the clean energy transition, while Bowen told a Guardian podcast that importing nations “know they can’t” stop using fossil fuels immediately and “need, in the meantime, to use fossil fuels.”
How Australia's Fossil Fuel Export Emissions Have Grown
How much have Australia’s fossil fuel export emissions grown?
Government data shows estimated emissions from coal and gas exports when burned overseas reached almost 1,200 million tonnes in 2025-26, up from 681 million tonnes in 2005.
What did the High Court rule about overseas emissions?
In October, the High Court found NSW planning authorities must consider Scope 3 emissions—those from burning Australian fossil fuels overseas—when approving projects, calling the scopes distinction an “accounting concept.”
What is Australia’s 2035 emissions target?
The government has set a target of reducing emissions 62 to 70 per cent below 2005 levels by 2035, with domestic emissions already down 25 per cent from 2005 levels.
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