Bernstein Research projects that Bitcoin could climb to 300,000 USD by 2029 in its base scenario, driven by expanding institutional adoption through spot exchange-traded funds and growing corporate balance sheet accumulation. According to a note sent to clients by Gautam Chhugani, senior digital assets analyst at Bernstein, the cryptocurrency market is exhibiting increased structural stability compared to previous cycles.
The updated forecast follows a strong market movement that briefly pushed Bitcoin past 80,000 USD. At the time of the analysis, the asset traded around 78,200 USD, meaning Bernstein’s base target implies an approximate 287% increase from that level.
Rather than anticipating an immediate surge, Bernstein’s trajectory maps out specific milestones for the coming years. The firm calculates that Bitcoin could finish 2026 near 125,000 USD, reach 150,000 USD by mid-2027, and continue upward to the 300,000 USD threshold by 2029.
Bullish Scenarios and Macroeconomic Catalysts
Beyond its base projection, Bernstein outlines a more aggressive bull case for the digital asset. Under that elevated trajectory, Bitcoin could achieve 200,000 USD as early as 2027 and climb to 500,000 USD before the decade closes, while maintaining a longer-term target of 1 millón de dólares by 2033.
According to Bernstein, the optimism is underpinned by structural shifts in investor composition. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has simplified market access for institutional participants. The firm notes that ETF outflows during recent market corrections remained relatively mild, while corporate treasury buyers continued accumulating during periods of price weakness.
Data cited by the firm indicates that long-term holders—investors who have retained their coins for over a year—control roughly 60% of the circulating supply. This concentration constrains available market liquidity. MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, also stands out in the research as a prominent corporate buyer that has continuously supported demand during market pullbacks.
Addressing US Debt and Market Corrections
The firm’s investment thesis extends beyond ETF inflows to macroeconomic concerns, specifically pointing to the growing national debt of the United States, which currently hovers around 40 billones de dólares. Rising interest expenditures threaten to expand the federal deficit, potentially forcing governments toward higher inflation or looser monetary policy.
In that economic environment, Bernstein frames Bitcoin’s fixed, capped supply as a core defensive feature against currency depreciation. Furthermore, the firm argues that recent market behavior differs fundamentally from historical drawdowns. Although Bitcoin touched roughly 126,000 USD in October 2025 before shedding nearly half its value, Bernstein characterizes this correction as significantly shallower than the 75% to 90% wipeouts seen in prior market cycles.