Mary Peltola held a slim 1.7% lead over Republican U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan on Wednesday in Alaska’s uncalled Senate race.
Tuesday night’s tally showed Peltola with 48.79% of the vote and Sullivan with 47.05%, with roughly 16% of ballots still uncounted. The Juneau Independent reported that Peltola’s lead grew from 0.3% a week prior. Neither the Associated Press nor other major media outlets projected a winner as counting continued across the state.
The campaign response emphasized the remaining uncounted ballots. “With tens of thousands of ballots still to be counted, there’s a long way to go before every Alaskan’s voice is heard,” Nate Adams, Sullivan campaign spokesperson, said Wednesday according to the Juneau Independent. Adams thanked the Division of Elections for their work and stated the campaign looks forward to a complete count.
Peltola traded as a 99% favorite at Polymarket and a 98.8% favorite at Kalshi on Wednesday morning. At PredictIt, she stood at a 93% favorite to capture a majority of first-choice ballots, which would bypass a ranked-choice runoff entirely.
Betting payouts differ from simulated runoff projections
Market odds created a stark contrast with actual vote totals, offering high payouts for bets against the incumbent. A $100 wager on a Peltola defeat yielded a $9,140 payout on Polymarket and $7,794.16 on Kalshi, according to the platforms’ websites. Trading fees reduced those payouts below actual mathematical odds.
An analysis by the Alaska Beacon indicated Sullivan gained a net of 906 votes in a simulated ranked-choice runoff of current tallies, picking up 3,066 votes to Peltola’s 2,160. That shift fell short of erasing Peltola’s lead and omitted 9,909 ballots from rural precincts lacking ranked data.
Lawsuits and investigations target Peltola campaign allegations
Several legal and political hurdles loomed over the final certification of the contest. President Donald Trump ordered a lawsuit seeking to block certification if Peltola wins, citing allegations that her campaign recruited a Petersburg resident named Dan J. Sullivan to siphon votes. Federal and state authorities also opened criminal investigations into those claims.
Congressional Republicans suggested Peltola might face resistance to being seated if she secures victory. Meanwhile, political betting markets drew increased scrutiny from lawmakers.
A CBS News analysis published Tuesday revealed that candidates favored by Kalshi markets won 95% of congressional and gubernatorial midterm races, but ABC reported earlier this year that Kalshi suspended accounts of three congressional candidates who allegedly bet on their own contests. Politico reported Sunday that Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress weighed tighter regulations on political betting.
Senate Race Questions
When will election officials finish counting the remaining ballots in Alaska?
State election officials have not announced a final completion date for counting the estimated 16% of uncounted ballots remaining across Alaska precincts.
What specific legal actions challenge the election outcome?
A lawsuit ordered by President Donald Trump seeks to halt certification if Peltola wins, based on allegations that her campaign recruited a Petersburg resident named Dan J. Sullivan to cause voter confusion.
How do ranked-choice voting simulations affect the current tallies?
An Alaska Beacon analysis showed Sullivan gaining a net of 906 votes in a ranked-choice runoff of counted ballots, though the data excluded 9,909 rural precinct ballots.
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