Brain Drain Map: New Trends in Migration Patterns

Europa It is emptying at the margins. And not from any population: his most educated youth leaveswho emigrates in search of better opportunities.

When a territory invests in human capital but does not create an environment capable of retaining it, mobility ceases to be an opportunity and becomes a driver of the structural loss of talent. With the departure of the most qualified young people, the affected regions enter a spiral that slows their economic growth and weakens their public services, which pushes more and more professionals to emigrate. Breaking out of this vicious circle requires comprehensive investment, employment and talent retention strategy.

This phenomenon is linked to the “talent development trap“, a concept with which European Commission identifies territories unable to compensate for the loss of the active population due to depopulation and aging. Currently, 46 regions are in this situation; among them, almost all of Bulgaria and Romania, Sicily or the Portuguese Alentejo.

Another 36 territories, including Extremadura, Castilla y León or Castilla-La Mancha, are at risk of falling into this trap in the coming years. Together they represent around 30% of the EU population. Although the majority are located in eastern and southern Europe, are also affected parts of the former East Germany, northern France and Finland.

The brain drain map it is not uniform: Depending on the country, it can be mostly internal or external. In Spain it occurs mainly from inland regions towards Madrid and the coast; in Lithuania, destined for the rest of the EU.

Spain is, therefore, not among the European countries most affected by the brain drain abroad. This group is equivalent 1.5% of the university population residing in the country, when in Romania and Croatia it exceeds double digits. European destinations with The most Spaniards of working age are Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Italyaccording to Eurostat. Even so, according to a Eurofound surveyhalf of young Spaniards plan or want to move abroad in the next three years.

“Spain forms more university graduates of those that its production system can absorb,” he says. Miguel González Leonardoresearcher at the Center for Demographic Studies. As a consequence, Spanish university students in other EU countries register an employment rate up to four points higher to that of those who remain in Spain, a pattern also present in Greece, Italy, Austria and France.

The vacancies for highly qualified workers In Spain they usually offer uncompetitive salaries and, although the economic recovery temporarily stopped emigration, the rising cost of living and housing is once again driving departures. “Living abroad is no longer much more expensive than in Spain, but you do earn more,” concludes González Leonardo.

A key factor is the investment in R&D. Spain reached a spending equivalent to 1.5% of GDP in 2024, far from the community average (2.2%) and well below Sweden (3.6%), the European leader. This limits the ability retain researchers and specialists in fields such as medicine, aggravating the loss of competitiveness and the deterioration of services.

In short, the brain drain represents a structural failure in the single market as a result of the imbalance between training, employment and living conditions in a territory. Understand why it happens and how to deal with it is one of the big questions to be resolved for the European Unionespecially at a time of demographic transition and strong global competition for talent with the US or China.

From ‘win-win’ to threat to the European project

“During the enlargement process of the European Union, a special emphasis on freedom of movementwhich was considered a ‘win-win’ for everyone,” says László Andor, secretary general of the European Foundation for Progressive Studies. Today, in many peripheral countries and regions, free movement is perceived as a brake on economic development, increasing resentment towards European institutions.

Migration to the richest countries in Europe became a massive phenomenon during the financial crisis, especially from eastern and southern Europe. Most of those who emigrated then have not returned. “The most qualified workforce in our country is working today in the European Union. “This leaves us without the capacity to build infrastructure, without nurses in hospitals or teachers in schools,” says Emil Bocformer Prime Minister of Romania between 2008 and 2012.

“It probably took us a while too long to realize that the EU needed to work for fair mobility instead of simply free movement,” acknowledges Andor, European Commissioner for Employment between 2010 and 2014. To reverse this situation, the European Commission presented the “Mechanism to Promote Talent” in 2023, a pilot project which seeks to support the regions in the training, retention and attraction of the most educated population. In Spain, Extremadura and Castilla y León have participated.

“The Single Market should empower citizens, rather than create circumstances in which they feel obliged to move to prosper. Free movement is a valuable asset, but It should be a choice, not a necessity.“, warns the shapeless Readwhich constitutes, together with the Draghi informsthe European Commission’s roadmap on the future of the single market. In the document, presented in March 2024, the former Italian prime minister goes further and is committed to encouraging the return of migrants from the EU to their countries. countries of originwith grants aimed at small businesses and researchers. But do these policies work?

Sierdjan Koster, professor de Economic Geography and Labor Market Dynamics in the University of Groningenbet on act before the talent leaves. “You have to try to target talent very early, when they are still in high school, and show them the opportunities that exist in their own region,” he says. “Retention policies, such as supporting internships or the completion of additional coursesthey do not require a large investment. On the other hand, when someone leaves a territory in crisis and earns between two and four times more than before, it is difficult for him to return,” he adds. Andor László.

There is, therefore, no infallible recipe to reverse the drain of talent, but there is There are traps that should be avoided.. For example, the proliferation of initiatives similar to few kilometers away, without coordination or continuity. “There is a risk of generating a mosaic of disconnected projects,” warns Thijs Broekhuizen, professor of Innovation Management and Strategy at the University of Groningen.

Even so, there are models that lead the way. In Cluj-Napoca, the second most populated city from Romania, Emil Boc has made the attraction and retention of human capital a strategic priority. As mayor of this university enclave, his approach is based on a simple idea: for young people to stay, we must offer a city worth living in, guaranteeing levels of well-being comparable to those of large European cities.

The strategy is based on betting on the knowledge economy to attract qualified and well-paid employment; invest in infrastructure –with the construction of a metro network o the expansion of its airport– and reinforce the public services taking advantage of the leverage of European funds.

Initiatives like the electronic music festival Untold They have also enhanced the cultural life of the city. But this model does not work without a affordable housing. “We are going to lose our young generation and hand over Europe to extremists and populists if we do not put community program running of affordable housing,” he warns.

The Cluj example fits with a key EU principle. Build a single market prosperous is not possible without regional convergence and territorial cohesion, as advocated Jacques Delorsformer president of the European Commission. “Cohesion policy is not charity, it is the glue that keeps Europe together,” emphasizes Emil Boc. The challenge is to convert the exit of talent into an opportunity for reinforce the territories instead of a permanent loss.

What would make return possible?

“With policies of accompaniment and return, there can be circulation of brains. researchers who are trained outside “They can contribute great value to the Spanish university,” says Francisco José Maldonadopresident of the Network of Associations of Spanish Researchers and Scientists Abroad (Raicex). The problem is not the mobility of the most educated population, but rather the lack of opportunities and incentives to return.

For “brain circulation” to be real, researchers claim structural changes in the university system. The urgency of these reforms is reflected in the fact that six out of ten postdoctoral researchers in the EU recognize that Temporary employment and job insecurity greatly affect your personal life.according to a survey of the European Council of Doctoral Students and Young Researchers (Eurodoc).

This precariousness also explains why mobility is not always a real option. “When talking about research mobilitywe usually refer to the mobility of the researcher. Not everyone can afford itwhether for economic or family reasons,” says Norbert Bencze, secretary of Eurodoc. If mobility cannot be a requirement, the system must offer flexible alternatives to retain talent.

“Many researchers would agree to return if they could keep part of their work at the previous institution, without completely give up your position prior,” says Francisco José Torralba, postdoctoral researcher in computational neuroscience at the University of Tartu (Estonia), which considers that dual affiliation should be promoted to promote brain circulation.

This flexibility is also observed in other systems, such as Britishwhere “it is common for professionals to alternate stages in industry and university, combine both activities or specialize in teaching or research,” he points out. Javier Pardo, gerente en UK Research and Innovation (Ukri), body that finances and coordinates research and innovation in the United Kingdom.

“I did my PhD in computer science at the Oxford Universitybut it is not automatically recognized in Spain”, explains Pardo. Recognition of titles obtained in foreign universities is one of the main headaches of researchers abroad, and as it works today, discourages their return to Spain. The approval process it is usually slow and expensive; It requires multiple procedures and, frequently, travel. “In Lithuaniacertain authorized universities they directly manage the equivalence academic foreign titleswhich simplifies the process,” he adds. Torralba.

“Some have done very well and have decided to stay in the country that gave them an opportunity; others are clear that they want to return”

But even if these were resolved administrative barriersthe return would continue to encounter a structural obstacle: job instability. “Researchers with consolidated positions abroad would return with worst conditions and, in many cases, with temporary contracts with no guarantee of continuity,” explains Torralba. As an example, he points out the Ramón y Cajal scholarshipswhich offer a five-year contract but “without a real commitment posterior stabilization.

“The lack of opportunities expels many from the research system. We are overqualified, precarious and undervalued. When I say what I charge, many people don’t believe it.because it is incomprehensible that someone with my training and experience have such a low salary”, he denounces Almudena Muñozresearch teaching staff at the Complutense University of Madridwho returned to Spain in 2025 after working as a teacher for three years in Brazil.

Even so, return is not an aspiration shared by all researchers working abroad. “Some have done very well and have decided stay in the country that gave them a chance; others are clear that they want to return to Spain, and others would only do so with suitable conditions”explains Rodrigo García Valiente, a doctoral student in the Netherlands.

Therefore, the challenge is not only to recover national talent, but to turn Spain into a destination attractive to researchers from any origin. “Rather than focusing on very prominent profiles, we should bet on grassroots scientistswho are the ones who support the system,” says Francisco José Torralba.

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To achieve this, it is essential to “publish the contents of the universities and colleges’ websites. vacancy notices in Englishoffer reasonable incorporation deadlines and facilitate the understanding of the university system and the CSIC for those who work abroad,” summarizes Javier Pardo. “These are measures that They do not represent a drastic change to the systembut they make it easier for those who are abroad to consider coming to Spain,” he concludes.

And on the other side… the abyss

The American science system, which for decades functioned as a magnet for Talent Globalbegins to crack. The Trump administration has proposed cut federal spending in non-military R&D by 36% – still pending approval – while the political pressure on science and institutional polarization translate into uncertainty and loss of attractiveness.

“Spanish researchers in the US are in a complicated situation,” he acknowledges. Torralbawho is also president of Raicex. In Trump’s first year in office, federal scientific agencies They lost 20% of their staff and 7,840 research grants were canceled or suspended, according to the magazine Nature. New international students in the US have reduced 17% this course, according to the Institute of International Education.

The policies of the Republicans in the US open a window of opportunity for the EU if it is willing to take advantage of it. To achieve this, Europe must position itself as a real competitor in the global race for talentfacilitating the arrival of researchers and improving their working conditions, defends Norbert Bencze. “It must demonstrate that evidence-based policies prevail, that the professionalism account and is willing to defend its social model,” he says. Andor László.

The United Kingdom exemplifies well the risks of nationalism and the border closure policy. Brexit has broken the logic of talent circulation that held the british investigative system. Its international alliances have been diminished and economic barriers and administrative costs have multiplied: expensive visas, “international student” fees and loss of access to state loans for European students. As a result, “the system already does not necessarily attract the brightest recordsbut to those who can pay for the staydisplacing European students in favor of wealthy families from Asia or Africa,” says Javier Pardo.

This risk is not unique to the UK. The European Union also runs the danger of reproducing errors that have eroded the British and American scientific-academic systems. In the Netherlandsinternational talent “is under pressure” due to the anti-immigration rhetoricwhich has slowed down the international student arrivalssays Sierdjan Koster. “Foreign talent drives the innovation and strengthens institutions. The social benefits that this group receives are used as fuel for populism”, he concludes.

The EU can be the alternative to chaos: a bloc where science is not subject to political swings and where mobility has return ticket. But to achieve this, you must demonstrate that the talent is retained with opportunities for advancement and a shared project that leaves no one behind. If not, European brains will continue to emigrate and the abyss into which they look today USA and UK will end up engulfing Europa.