Chapecoense became the club mathematically relegated from Brazil’s 2026 Série A when the 34th round of the Brasileirão closed on Friday, while Remo, Grêmio, Corinthians, Vitória and Internacional remain in danger with four matches remaining.
According to Opta data, Remo is next in line for the drop with a 99.95% relegation probability, followed by Grêmio at 59.69%. Vitória entered the relegation battle outright with the result of its match against Fluminense on Friday, carrying a 42.45% chance of going down, close to Corinthians, which a separate statistical survey puts at 54.9%. Internacional, at 38.62% by Opta’s model, is among the clubs breathing more easily after recent results.
Two models, different numbers for the same clubs
The Opta figures and a study by the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) rank the threatened clubs in the same order but with different probabilities. UFMG puts Grêmio at 59.0%, Corinthians at 54.9%, Internacional at 41.6% and Vitória at 21.4%, while Opta gives Vitória 42.45% and Internacional 38.62%. Both models agree on the bottom of the table: Chapecoense at 100%, Remo at 99.95%, and São Paulo virtually safe at 0.01% (Opta) or 0.012% (UFMG).
| Club | choose | UFMG |
|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense | 100% | 100.0% |
| Remo | 99.95% | 99.95% |
| Grêmio | 59.69% | 59.0% |
| Corinthians | — | 54.9% |
| Victory | 42.45% | 21.4% |
| International | 38.62% | 41.6% |
| Mirassol | 12.14% | 16.1% |
| Coritiba | 4.22% | 3.6% |
| Botafogo | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| Vasco | 0.83% | 2.0% |
| São Paulo | 0.01% | 0.012% |
The 44-point benchmark and what each club still needs
A 38% points-per-game rate — 44 points — gives a club great chances of not being relegated. Internacional currently sits on 38 points (37.3% utilization), while Vitória also has 38 points but a 38.3% rate because it has a game less. Corinthians and Grêmio are both at 37 points, a 36.6% rate, and both would be relegated if the table froze today.
With four rounds left, Grêmio needs seven more points — two wins and a draw, a 58.3% rate — from matches against Bahia at home, Santos away, Corinthians away and Mirassol at home. Internacional needs six points, a 50% rate, from games against Vasco away, Vitória at home, Red Bull Bragantino at home and Cruzeiro away.
Schedules shape the run-in
Internacional has the hardest path among the three most threatened clubs that share the tightest margin: it is the only one of them that will face a top-three side in the final stretch, closing the season away to Cruzeiro, who have 60 points. Corinthians, meanwhile, has two matches against relegation-zone rivals, including a direct showdown with Grêmio at home in the 37th round, a game both sides enter with identical points.
The full closing schedule for the eight clubs still involved in the relegation fight — Botafogo, Coritiba, Vasco, Mirassol, Vitória, Internacional, Corinthians and Grêmio — includes a pause for the November FIFA window, with the league resuming on November 18. Two postponed matches from earlier rounds, Mirassol vs. Atlético-MG and Chapecoense vs. Vasco, are scheduled for November 14.
League resumes with Grêmio’s opener
The 34th round is not fully complete — Vitória’s match against Fluminense was still pending on Friday — but with the break for international duty, the relegation picture will stay frozen until the league resumes on November 18, when Grêmio hosts Bahia in Porto Alegre to open the decisive final stretch.
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