“How China engages on different levels in the coming years is the most fundamental thing that is going to happen on climate because of both their role in clean-tech deployment … but also because of their emissions profile,” said Jennifer Morgan, Germany’s former climate minister.
China contributed $132 billion in clean technology and investments to developing nations last year, according to a Reuters analysis.
That sum nearly matches the $137 billion in climate finance that wealthy nations provided to poorer countries in 2024 under United Nations pledges, based on figures from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The data illustrates how Beijing’s subsidized green-manufacturing sector now rivals the climate finance provided by wealthy nations.
China’s clean-tech exports are reshaping energy markets across the Global South. Customs data analyzed by Reuters show that last year’s shipments will help developing nations avoid 257 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually once fully deployed. Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, calculated that this reduction equals France’s total annual carbon dioxide output.
This year’s exports are on track to avoid 337 million metric tons of emissions, according to the same analysis. The total includes roughly $40 billion in foreign direct investment for clean-technology projects across developing nations, compiled by Mathias Larsen and Xiaokang Xue at the London School of Economics.
China has largely avoided assuming formal diplomatic leadership in global climate talks, even after the United States withdrew from international cooperation under President Donald Trump in 2025.
Observers say Beijing remains wary that a bold stance on global carbon reduction would bring unwanted pressure for more climate aid or deeper domestic fossil-fuel cuts. China currently emits roughly a third of global carbon dioxide and relies on coal for more than half of its power generation.
Instead of relying on diplomatic grants, Beijing’s strategy relies on industrial scale and domestic subsidies to drive down green technology costs. Li Shuo, who heads the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, noted that this approach allows developing countries to adopt renewables for purely economic reasons. “You can align it to your economic agenda,” he said.
The plunge in green technology prices has altered energy adoption patterns from Africa to South Asia. When Ethiopia banned internal combustion engine vehicle imports in 2024, the policy was driven primarily by the need to curb fuel import expenses rather than emissions targets.
“No one in Ethiopia is asking COP to pay for any of this; the economics have just switched,” said Mathias Larsen, a senior policy fellow at the London School of Economics. Pakistan imported 17 gigawatts of solar panels from China last year—matching Germany’s installation volume for the same period—to secure reliable and cheap electricity.
While developing nations absorb roughly two-thirds of China’s solar panel and cell exports, wealthy economies have moved to block the influx. The United States imposes tariffs exceeding 100% on Chinese electric vehicles to protect domestic manufacturers.
André Corrêa do Lago, a veteran climate negotiator for Brazil, pointed out the growing friction between climate goals and trade protectionism. “What is striking is that policies originally designed to address climate change are now facing opposition not because of their climate impacts, but because of concerns about trade and competitiveness,” he said.
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