The Shifting Center of Global Christianity

For nearly two millennia, Christianity expanded from its origins in the eastern Roman Empire to become the world’s largest religion. While still the largest faith globally, a significant demographic shift is underway: Christianity is experiencing growth in sub-Saharan Africa while declining in Europe and North America. This article examines the factors driving this change and its implications for the future of the faith.

From Imperial Religion to Global Majority

Christianity’s early spread relied on itinerant preachers and close-knit communities offering social support. This trajectory dramatically changed in 313 AD when Emperor Constantine legalized Christianity and later when it became the Roman state religion. Medieval missions carried it across Europe, and from the 15th century onward, European expansion exported it worldwide, often alongside colonial powers like Spain, Portugal, Britain, France, and Belgium. Missionaries established schools and medical services, translated scripture, and sometimes used coercive measures to suppress indigenous religions.

Recent Growth and Decline (2010-2020)

Between 2010 and 2020, the number of Christians globally rose by 6%, from 2.1 billion to 2.3 billion. However, this growth was outpaced by the overall global population increase and the growth of other religious groups, causing Christianity’s share of the world population to fall from 31% to 28.8%. As of 2020, there were approximately 2.3 billion Christians worldwide, encompassing Catholics, Orthodox Christians, and various Protestant denominations.

The Geographic Shift: Africa Rises, Europe Declines

The most striking change in the past decade has been geographic. Europe, historically the center of Christianity, no longer holds the largest Christian population. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of Christians in Europe declined by 9% to 505 million, while in North America, the number shrank by 11% to 238 million. Conversely, sub-Saharan Africa experienced a 31% increase, reaching 697 million Christians.

By 2020:

• Sub-Saharan Africa: 697 million Christians (up 31%)
• Europe: 505 million (down 9%)
• North America: 238 million (down 11%)

This shift means that by 2020, 31% of all Christians lived in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to 22% in Europe. Latin America and the Caribbean accounted for 24% of global Christians, and North America for 10%.

Shifting Proportions Within Countries

The proportion of populations identifying as Christian also changed significantly between 2010 and 2020:

• North America: 63% (down 14 percentage points)
• Europe: 67% (down 8 points)
• Latin America–Caribbean: 85% (down 5 points)
• Sub-Saharan Africa: 62% (up slightly, less than 1 point)

In Asia-Pacific and the Middle East–North Africa regions, Christians remained under 10% of the population, with a slight decline.

Where Christianity Declined

Substantial changes (defined as at least a five-percentage-point shift) occurred in 41 countries between 2010 and 2020, with Christianity declining in all but one. The largest drops were observed in:

• Australia: down 20 points
• Chile: down 18 points
• Uruguay: down 16 points
• United States: down 14 points
• Canada: down 14 points

Several countries saw Christianity lose its majority status:

• United Kingdom: 49%
• Australia: 47%
• France: 46%
• Uruguay: 44%

In these cases, the religiously unaffiliated population rose to 40% or more.

The Role of Religious Switching

The primary driver of these changes is not birth rates alone, but religious switching. Christians experienced the largest net losses: for every 1 person who joined Christianity, 3.1 left it, most becoming religiously unaffiliated. This movement explains both Christianity’s declining share and the growth of the “nones.” Globally, more people are leaving religion than adopting it, with 3.2 people leaving for every one who joins among adults aged 18–54. While Christians have relatively high birth rates, switching offsets this.

Global Religious Landscape in 2020

By 2020, the global religious landscape was as follows:

• Christians: 28.8% (2.3 billion)
• Muslims: 25.6%
• Religiously unaffiliated: 24.2%
• Hindus: 14.9%
• Buddhists: 4.1%

The religiously unaffiliated now comprise 24.2% of the global population, largely driven by Christian disaffiliation. The data indicates that Christianity remains the world’s largest religion, but is increasingly concentrated in the Global South and shaped by disaffiliation in the West.