Rapid climate change threatens over a quarter of cactus species with severe habitat loss by the end of the century.
Intense droughts driven by a warming planet could wipe out at least 80% of the natural range for roughly 1,000 analyzed species, according to a study published in Nature.
Researchers from the University of Arizona and the University of South Florida led the investigation. They found that this decline is already underway and warn that similar environmental shocks could soon devastate other plant families.
“Climate change makes extreme events more frequent,” said Michiel Pillet, lead author of the research, who has worked at the University of Arizona and is now at the University of South Florida, according to ANSA.it. “But such events are in general excluded from large-scale forecasts.”
To understand how cacti will handle shifting weather patterns, researchers coordinated by Brian Enquist at the University of Arizona integrated severe drought projections into their environmental models. Their results demonstrate that standard arid adaptations might not protect these plants from prolonged, intense dry spells.
Biodiversity hotspots face the steepest risks. Chile, Peru, and northeastern Brazil will likely bear the heaviest ecological toll as habitats degrade.
“The prospects for cacti will be grim,” Pillet told ANSA.it, “especially if, to our projections, we add the current threats represented by habitat destruction and illegal harvesting.”
Chile, Peru, and northeastern Brazil emerge as the most vulnerable biodiversity hotspots in the study. These areas face compounding pressures from both intense droughts and human activity.
Scientists said that traditional large-scale forecasts largely exclude extreme weather events. By factoring severe, prolonged droughts into their data, the research team uncovered risks that earlier models missed.
Related reading