Cook Political Report Shifts Three Senate Races Toward Midterms
The Cook Political Report adjusted its ratings for three key U.S. Senate races, shifting two seats toward Democrats in Mississippi and South Carolina while moving Minnesota’s open-seat contest toward Republicans, according to the Washington Examiner. The nonpartisan election handicapper made the updates as campaigns enter the final stretch of the midterm elections, highlighting how individual candidate quality can occasionally defy broader national trends.
Candidate Quality Reshapes South Carolina and Mississippi Contests
In South Carolina, the Cook Political Report moved the Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” Republican Sen. Darline Graham was appointed by South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster to replace her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham. Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who began campaigning in May of the previous year, is challenging Graham. Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor at Cook, noted that Andrews may be benefiting from voter dissatisfaction with Republicans nationally alongside questions regarding Graham’s strength as a candidate.
In Mississippi, Cook shifted the Senate contest from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.” District Attorney Scott Colom is running as the Democratic candidate to unseat Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. National Democratic support has entered the race, including a $1.2 million television ad buy from a national Democratic PAC and an appearance by former President Barack Obama in an ad for Colom. Despite these headwinds for Hyde-Smith as an ally of Trump in the Senate during an unfavorable national environment, limited polling from Democratic pollsters still shows Hyde-Smith running ahead.
GOP Gains Ground in Minnesota Open Seat Race
In Minnesota, the election forecaster moved the Senate contest from “Likely Democrat” to “Leans Democrat,” marking one of the few rating shifts favoring Republicans among major forecasters this cycle, according to the Washington Examiner. The race features Democratic nominee Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan running against Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, a longtime television sports reporter, for the open seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Flanagan has faced Republican attacks for her administration’s handling of state social services fraud under Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, while Flanagan has sought to tie Tafoya to Trump. Despite the shift, Decision Desk HQ gives Flanagan an 81 percent probability of winning.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Senate Rating Changes
Why did the Cook Political Report shift these specific Senate races?
According to Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor at Cook, the adjustments were driven by individual candidate quality on either side, which can override national political trends during midterm years.
Who is running against Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi?
District Attorney Scott Colom is running as the Democratic candidate against Hyde-Smith, backed by a recent $1.2 million television ad investment from a national Democratic PAC and an ad appearance by former President Barack Obama.
What rating change did Minnesota’s Senate race receive?
The Cook Political Report moved the Minnesota race from “Likely Democrat” to “Leans Democrat” as Democratic nominee Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan faces Republican nominee Michele Tafoya for the open seat.
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