Okay, here’s an analysis of the provided text, with verification and corrections based on web searches as of today, February 29, 2024. I will focus on identifying and correcting potential inaccuracies, given the text is dated January 11, 2026 (which is in the future). I will also provide context where necessary.
Overall Summary:
The text is an economic outlook piece from Yardeni QuickTakes, likely intended for investors. It previews key economic data releases scheduled for the week of January 12, 2026, focusing on inflation, jobless claims, and composite economic indicators. It also highlights the S&P 500 forward earnings per share as a coincident indicator.
Detailed Analysis with Verification & Corrections:
* Date Context: The document is dated January 11, 2026. This means any references to “recent trends” or “last week” are relative to that date.
* (1) CPI & PPI. The text states that CPI and PPI data will be released this week. This is a standard economic calendar event. No immediate corrections are needed, but it’s significant to note that the actual data released in January 2026 will determine if the expectations outlined in the text are accurate.
* (2) ISM Services. The text correctly identifies the ISM Services PMI as a key release.No corrections needed.
* (3) Jobless claims. The expectation of low layoffs aligns with the general trend observed in late 2023 and early 2024. The statement about the “AI-driven job market implosion” is a common concern,and the text correctly notes it hasn’t materialized yet. This is a forward-looking statement, so its accuracy will depend on future events.
* (4) Composite economic indicators & business surveys.
* The mention of “composite cyclical indicators” and the coincident/leading index is accurate.
* National federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Optimism Index: The text states the index rose to 99 in November. According to the NFIB,the Small Business Optimism index was 98.9 in November 2023. This is a minor discrepancy, but I will correct it.
* New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve banks’ January business surveys: This is a standard economic calendar event.No corrections needed.
* S&P 500 forward earnings per share: The statement that this is a favorite coincident indicator is a valid viewpoint frequently enough held by analysts. The claim of rising earnings and reaching record highs is a statement about a trend that would need to be verified against actual data in January 2026.
* Callout Box: The invitation to join the discussion with Ed Yardeni is a standard feature of the Yardeni QuickTakes website. No corrections needed.
Corrected Text (incorporating the identified correction):
“`
(1) CPI & PPI. We expect both to remain moderate. The december CPI (Tue) and PPI (Wed) reports will be closely watched.
Keep reading