Egypt’s Expanding Regional Role and the Shifting Dynamics in the Horn of Africa

Cairo is increasingly assertive in its foreign policy, seeking to solidify its position as a key geopolitical player amid rising regional tensions. This expansion, however, is occurring alongside economic challenges at home and is drawing scrutiny from neighboring countries, particularly Israel, and raising concerns about potential proxy conflicts.

Egypt’s Involvement in Sudan

Recent evidence suggests Egypt’s growing involvement in the ongoing civil war in Sudan. Satellite imagery indicates that Cairo has been conducting drone strikes within Sudan, targeting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who have been engaged in conflict with the Sudanese military since 2023.

Challenging Israel in the Horn of Africa

Egypt is too challenging Israel’s strategic ambitions in the Horn of Africa. In December 2025, Israel formally recognized Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, to strengthen its position in the Red Sea, a crucial trade route for global commerce.

In response, President Sisi reaffirmed Egypt’s “special role” in Somalia, characterizing Israel’s actions as a “dangerous precedent” that could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa. Egypt deployed approximately 1,100 soldiers to Somalia earlier in February 2026, as part of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM), contributing to a 5,000-strong contingent proposed by Cairo in 2024, to support counterterrorism efforts against al-Shabab.

Concerns Over Ethiopia and Regional Alliances

Egypt is wary of a potential alignment between Israel and Ethiopia, with some analysts suggesting Israel may encourage Ethiopia to recognize Somaliland. Cairo views Somalia as a key “pressure point” against Ethiopia, given the long-standing rivalry between the two nations, primarily centered on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and its potential impact on Egypt’s access to Nile River water.

In late 2025, Egypt reached agreements to upgrade the ports of Doraleh in Djibouti and Assab in Eritrea, moves widely interpreted as an effort to encircle Ethiopia.

Rising Risk of Proxy Conflicts

As regional actors compete for influence, the Horn of Africa risks becoming a volatile proxy conflict zone, potentially drawing in other states like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Reports indicate Saudi Arabia is finalizing an agreement to form a new military coalition with Somalia and Egypt, aimed at countering the influence of the United Arab Emirates in the region.

Domestic Concerns and Economic Challenges

While Egyptians generally support their government taking a strong role in regional stability, particularly regarding the conflict in Gaza, concerns are growing about the economic impact of extensive military spending. Mega-projects, such as the $59 billion new administrative capital and a $35 billion megacity on the Mediterranean, are facing criticism for diverting resources from pressing economic needs.

Poverty rates in Egypt have been steadily increasing, and despite a stabilization of the Egyptian pound in 2025 due to IMF funding and foreign investment, Egyptians continue to grapple with a cost-of-living crisis exacerbated by policies impacting rent controls and food subsidies.

The significant role of the military in the Egyptian economy, controlling up to 90 percent of public projects and operating with limited financial oversight, is also a source of discontent.

Recent Regional Developments

• UN Security Council Briefing: On February 25, 2026, the UN Security Council held a briefing on its peacekeeping mission in the Central African Republic.
• Africa-Venezuela Energy Cooperation: From February 25-26, 2026, the African Energy Chamber led a delegation to Venezuela to strengthen oil and gas cooperation.
• Africa’s Green Economy Summit: The Africa’s Green Economy Summit continued from February 25-27, 2026, in Cape Town, South Africa.
• Chad Border Closure: Chad closed its eastern border with Sudan on February 24, 2026, following clashes between the RSF and allied militia spilling into Chadian territory.
• Tunisian Court Releases Lawyer: On February 24, 2026, a Tunisian court ordered the release of lawyer Ahmed Souab, previously sentenced for allegedly forming a terrorist group.

Russia’s Foreign Fighters and Kenyan Involvement

An intelligence report commissioned by the Kenyan parliament revealed that over 1,000 Kenyans are fighting for Russia in Ukraine, having been misled with false promises of civilian jobs. The Russian Embassy in Nairobi has refuted these claims, dismissing them as “dangerous and misleading propaganda.” South Africa recently secured the release of 17 of its citizens who were similarly deceived into fighting for Russia, with some having already returned home.