Fifty-eight percent of Russians fear a general military mobilization according to poll data published by the independent Levada Center in late October.
That figure marks a sharp rise from February 2024, when 34 percent of Russians answered the same way.
The Levada Center asked a representative sample of Russians whether they feared that the military action in Ukraine would lead to a general mobilization.
At the same time, only 9 percent of respondents said they believed there was any need to start a second wave of mobilization in the coming months, while 72 percent answered no and 21 percent found the question difficult to answer. According to Levada data, the 72 percent opposition figure is the highest recorded resistance to mobilization since the center began measuring it.
“The main reason why mobilization has become more feared is probably that there has been a lot of talk about it in recent months,” said Adrian Rogstad, senior researcher at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), to Nettavisen.
Rogstad said that Ukrainians have claimed a mobilization is planned, international media have reported that it is being studied using sources in the Russian state apparatus, and Russian independent media and podcasts have discussed both whether it will happen and how Russians can escape if it does. He also said that Russian authorities have denied such a mobilization repeatedly, calling it an anti-Russian information operation.
“But they also did that several times before the mobilization was launched in 2022, so it probably doesn’t help to calm the population.” Samtidig er det flere rapporter om økende tapstall ved fronten, said Rogstad, pointing to a Rosstat leak that showed that 450,100 Russian soldiers had lost their lives in Ukraine since 2022, alongside slowing soldier recruitment and organizations reporting increased demand from Russians seeking to evade service.
He added that a large proportion of the Russians invading Ukraine have been recruited voluntarily in exchange for large sums of money, but much indicates that this no longer works as alluringly.
According to the researcher, Russian authorities do not take a potential mobilization lightly. “It is something that would force more Russians to make an active choice between resisting in the form of protests, fleeing, or taking an active part in the war,” said Rogstad.
Earlier this week, it also became known that more than 1.13 million Russians reportedly left Russia between July and September this year, representing the highest level in 17 years. Some of the largest demonstrations in Russia since the full-scale invasion began occurred in Moscow on September 21, 2022, after Vladimir Putin signed a mobilization order.