Global Food Security at Risk as Geopolitical Tensions Escalate

The global food crisis, initially exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, is facing renewed threats due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. A recent forum highlighted the urgent need for Europe to bolster its food production, create strategic reserves, and reassess its foreign policy to ensure food security for itself and its neighbors.

The Widening Crisis

The 11th Global Food Forum of Farm Europe, an association comprising over 35 farmers’ organizations, agri-food companies, and scientific representatives from 17 countries, convened in Brussels to discuss the growing challenges to global food security. Discussions centered on the need to move beyond simply increasing production within Europe.

Strategic Reserves: A Critical Need

Luigi Scordamaglia, CEO of Filiera Italia and president of Eat Europe, emphasized the necessity of reducing the EU’s vulnerability to external shocks. He advocated for the creation of strategic reserves of essential agricultural raw materials and critical inputs like fertilizers and feed, areas where Italy faces significant deficiencies. The current fertilizer crisis, intensified by geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions, is already driving up costs and reducing crop yields. Strategic reserves would serve as a crucial risk management tool to protect European farmers and consumers from further price volatility.

Fertilizer Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

A significant portion of the world’s fertilizer production – at least one-third – transits through the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently experiencing disruptions. Combined with substantial fertilizer production in Russia and Belarus, this creates a precarious situation, raising the risk of shortages for agricultural activity. Ettore Prandini, president of Coldiretti, warned that without access to fertilizers, agricultural production will be severely compromised.

Food Security as Foreign Policy

Scordamaglia similarly pointed out that major global powers, such as China and the United States, already utilize food reserves as strategic tools to ensure domestic stability and exert geopolitical influence. He criticized the EU for weakening its presence in regions like North Africa and the Middle East, where food insecurity is increasing. To regain strategic relevance, the EU must be capable of rapidly mobilizing food assistance, recognizing that food security is intrinsically linked to foreign policy.

Impact of the Ukraine-Russia War on Agriculture

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to disrupt global agricultural markets. Russia is actively targeting Ukraine’s agricultural industry, including the blockade of Black Sea ports, destruction of agricultural infrastructure, and theft of agricultural products. This offensive aims to undermine the economic foundations of Ukraine and facilitate its subjugation. The damage to Ukraine’s agricultural assets is estimated to exceed $10 billion, with approximately $2 billion worth of products stolen or diverted to countries like Syria, and Iran.

Potential for Increased Production Post-Conflict

Looking ahead, should the war in Ukraine conclude, land currently affected by fighting will likely return to production, while this process will take several years. Combined Ukrainian and Russian crop output has declined only slightly during the war, suggesting that a return to normalcy could alleviate some pressure on global crop prices. Corn is expected to be the most impacted crop as its output has declined the most during the war.

Lower and Middle-Income Countries Most Vulnerable

The reduction in winter cereal yields and the fragmentation of food trade resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war disproportionately impact lower- and middle-income countries. These nations are particularly vulnerable to food price shocks and supply disruptions.