Baden-Württemberg Election: Fears of Becoming “Europe’s Detroit” Loom Large

STUTTGART – As Germany’s affluent state of Baden-Württemberg prepares to elect a new government on March 8, 2026, concerns over the future of its automotive industry are dominating the campaign. The specter of becoming “Europe’s Detroit” – a reference to the decline of the American automotive industry – hangs heavy over the region, famed for being the home of Mercedes-Benz, and Porsche.

Economic Anxiety and the Shift to Electric Vehicles

The election is taking place against a backdrop of significant job losses in the automotive sector. In the last six years, 270,000 manufacturing jobs have been lost in Baden-Württemberg due to the automotive crisis, deglobalization, and rising energy costs . Approximately half a million people are employed in the auto industry in the region, and millions of families depend on the health of these major brands.

A central issue is the transition to electric vehicles. Concerns are mounting that the shift could undermine the region’s prosperity, particularly given what observers describe as a “strategic disaster” by top managers who did not fully anticipate the electric revolution and instead focused on China and luxury vehicles .

Political Landscape and Key Players

Baden-Württemberg is currently governed by a coalition led by the Green party, with the Christian Democrats (CDU) as their junior partner. This is the only German state currently led by the Greens. Recent polls indicate a tight race between the Greens and the CDU, both projected to receive 28% of the vote . The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is polling at 18%, while the Social Democrats (SPD) trail at 8%.

The election is also seen as a key test for Chancellor Friedrich Merz one year after the federal elections, and will set the tone for other state elections in Germany this year .

The current Green leader, Cem Özdemir, is the heir to the pragmatic Winfried Kretschmann, who for years urged automotive companies to adapt to electric vehicles. The CDU challenger is Manuel Nagel.

The Role of Major Companies and Rearmament

Companies like Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Bosch, and BASF are central to the region’s economy. Bosch, in particular, is planning to cut over 24,000 jobs by 2030 , fueling anxieties about the future.

Interestingly, the possibility of increased German rearmament has entered the discussion. Trumpf, a laser technology company, is preparing to build anti-drone weapons, citing the inefficiency of European defenses . Nicola Leibinger-Kammüller, the managing director of Trumpf, has publicly stated she will vote CDU, believing the “substance of this region is at stake” . However, she also emphasized that rearmament is a “commitment” and not a “lifesaver.”

The Rise of the AfD

The AfD, which originated as the “teachers’ party,” is gaining traction, potentially doubling its consensus to 20%. In cities with high Russian immigration, such as Pforzheim, the party could even win the most votes. The AfD’s messaging centers on preserving the internal combustion engine and returning to nuclear power .

Baden-Württemberg, the birthplace of the automobile with Carl Benz’s patent in 1886, remains a hub of innovation, spending almost 5% of its GDP on research and holding the highest number of patents per capita in Germany. However, the region faces a critical juncture as it navigates the challenges of a changing automotive landscape.