Containership Fleet Expansion
The global containership fleet will expand by nearly 50% by 2030, driven by a surge in newbuilding orders that threatens to create a severe supply imbalance, The Loadstar reported.
Sea-Intelligence forecasts that the total fleet will grow from roughly 34m teu today to 40m teu by the second quarter of 2028, and ultimately reach 50m teu by the third quarter of 2030. Analysts expect average annual fleet growth of 10% between 2027 and 2030 based on existing contracts alone.
Vessel deliveries and orderbook projections through 2031
Quarterly vessel deliveries will average 1m teu over the forecast period. Deliveries are projected to peak at 1.8m teu in the third quarter of 2028, dwarfing the average quarterly deliveries of 560,000 TEU recorded between 2023 and 2026.
The ordering boom kicked off in the third quarter of 2024, with new contracts averaging 1.5m teu every quarter, according to Sea-Intelligence data. The current orderbook covering vessels scheduled for delivery through March 2031 stands at 15.7m teu, equivalent to 46.4% of the existing fleet. Meanwhile, Xeneta places the orderbook slightly lower at 15.47m teu.
Scrapping levels fail to offset incoming tonnage
Even record levels of vessel scrapping will do little to absorb the incoming tonnage. During the industry’s previous overcapacity crisis in 2016, carriers scrapped a record 670,000 TEU, which represented just 3.3% of the fleet.
Repeating that demolition volume annually between 2027 and 2030 would offset less than 17% of scheduled deliveries, keeping annual fleet growth at 8.5%. Xeneta analyst Peter Sand told The Loadstar that only 600,000 TEU had been demolished since 2019, noting that containerships are primarily scrapped for commercial and operational reasons rather than simple wear and tear.
“Containerships are built to last a life at sea, so they are mainly demolished for commercial and operational reasons rather than wear and tear,” Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said.
Braemar analyst Jonathan Roach told The Loadstar that while paper numbers for old and new ships look similar, a major mismatch in vessel sizes remains. Older ships slated for retirement are concentrated in the smaller sub-panamax sector, whereas newbuilding orders target much larger vessels.
“On paper, the numbers look remarkably similar, but this is where the comparison ends,” Braemar analyst Jonathan Roach said.
Demolitions struggle to absorb newbuild capacity
Jan Tiedemann, VP liner strategy at Alphaliner, told The Loadstar that scrapping should increase through 2027 and 2028. However, he noted that demolitions will fail to offset the sheer volume of incoming newbuilds.
Tiedemann pointed to several factors that could absorb excess capacity, including extended trade routes, slow-steaming practices, and rising consumer demand in emerging markets. He also highlighted the replacement needs for larger vessels built between 2000 and 2010, which will approach the end of their commercial lifespans by the mid-2030s.
Why shipping companies order new containerships
Why are shipping companies ordering so many new containerships?
Carriers began a massive ordering surge in the third quarter of 2024, signing contracts that averaged 1.5m teu every quarter.
How does the current orderbook compare between analysts?
Sea-Intelligence calculates the orderbook through March 2031 at 15.7m teu, while Xeneta estimates it slightly lower at 15.47m teu.
Can old ships be easily replaced by the new vessels entering service?
Older vessels approaching demolition age are heavily concentrated in smaller sub-panamax categories, while newbuilds heavily favor much larger ship classes.
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