Gold Rebounds as US Midterm Elections Shift Congressional Control
Spot gold climbed to approximately US$4,030 per ounce during intraday trading on November 4, 2026, marking its highest intraday gain since August 2026, snips.stockbit.com reported. The precious metal rebounded 3.9% from its 2026 low of US$3,870 per ounce recorded on October 30. Despite this recovery, prices remained down 6.9% year-to-date and 28% below an all-time high of US$5,595 per ounce reached on January 28, 2026. The rally followed Democratic Party victories securing control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the United States midterm elections. Markets anticipated that a Democratic-controlled Congress would constrain the fiscal agenda of President Donald Trump, reducing the necessity for new debt issuance. Lower yields burnish gold as a non-yielding asset, while a softer dollar renders bullion more affordable for international buyers.
Precious Metals Face Broader Pressures and Divergent Forecasts
Prior to the midterm outcome, bullion shed nearly 7% across October 2026 and dipped below US$4,000 per ounce. That drop stemmed from expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes amid persistent inflation and Brent crude hovering near US$104 per barrel. Tradingview reported that spot gold closed at US$3,927.18 per troy ounce on November 3, 2026, as the strengthening dollar and climbing yields weighed heavily on bullion. FXStreet noted that traders priced in an 80% probability of another Federal Reserve interest rate increase during the December policy meeting, based on CME FedWatch Tool data. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council trimmed its 2026 gold investment growth forecast to 200 tonnes from 400 tonnes, while upgrading its estimates for central bank purchases. Kompas reported that spot silver jumped 4.27 percent to US$51.90 per ounce on November 4, alongside gains in platinum and palladium, as StoneX market analyst Rhona O’Connell pointed to potential institutional friction and lower long-term yields.
Upcoming Data Releases and Market Catalysts
Market participants continue to monitor inflation prints, Federal Reserve policy trajectories following the central bank’s rate hold in October 2026, and geopolitical negotiations involving the United States and Iran. Brent crude prices receded from US$117 per barrel at the end of October to approximately US$104 per barrel, though risks from post-election developments remain.