Climate change and El Niño combined to intensify Hurricane Polo into the longest-lasting Category 5 storm ever recorded in the Pacific Ocean last month, according to a joint study published on October 14 by World Weather Attribution and Climate Central. Global warming driven by the burning of coal, oil, and gas served as the primary driver, adding nearly 10 kilometers per hour (about 6 miles per hour) to the storm’s intensity, while El Niño contributed roughly 8 kilometers per hour (around 5 miles per hour).
The study indicates that climate change made the conditions fueling the hurricane 23 times more probable, whereas the natural, temporary warming of the Pacific known as El Niño made those conditions 14 times more probable. Water temperatures reached 31.2 degrees Celsius (88 degrees Fahrenheit), sitting up to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than normal. These warm waters created an environment where Polo transformed from a tropical storm into a maximum-category hurricane within approximately 24 hours, maintaining Category 5 status for two and a half days.
How Climate Change Outpaced El Niño in Fueling Hurricane Polo
Researchers examined the warm waters that feed tropical systems to measure the maximum power storms can achieve. While El Niño alters atmospheric conditions globally, its impact varies by region. In the Atlantic, El Niño typically increases high-altitude wind shear that disrupts storms, but in the Pacific, shifting wind patterns reduce those weakening winds. Daniel Gilford, a scientist at Climate Central, compared the dynamic to traffic signals: El Niño acts as a green light for storm development in the Pacific, while human-caused climate change acts as a driver pressing hard on the accelerator.
Despite the extreme strength of the current El Niño cycle, researchers found that long-term global warming exerted a greater influence on Polo’s peak winds. “El Niño and the climate change made this hurricane more intense than it would have been otherwise, but the effect of climate change is even greater than that of El Niño,” said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist who coordinates World Weather Attribution. “El Niño comes and goes, but climate change only gets worse.”
Disagreements Among Scientists Regarding Warming Impacts
The rapid attribution analysis utilized established scientific methods by comparing real-world observations against a hypothetical preindustrial climate 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler. However, the findings have not yet undergone formal peer review. Furthermore, external researchers offered differing views on the scale of human influence. Jeff Masters of Yale Climate Connections, Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania, and Carl Schreck of North Carolina State University argued that the study potentially underestimates the extent to which climate change boosted Polo’s winds.
Gilford acknowledged that the rapid report might adopt a conservative approach by incorporating specific baseline conditions, while maintaining confidence in the overall conclusions shared by both independent research teams. Even without the combined forces of climate change and El Niño, researchers calculated that Polo would have formed as an exceptionally powerful storm. However, meteorologists emphasize that every incremental increase in wind speed significantly amplifies potential destruction before a system weakens prior to landfall.
Frequently Asked Questions About Hurricane Polo
Where did Hurricane Polo make landfall?
The hurricane weakened significantly before striking a sparsely populated area of Mexico.
How long did Hurricane Polo maintain Category 5 strength?
Polo set a Pacific record by holding Category 5 status for two and a half days during its peak intensity last month.
Did El Niño affect Hurricane Polo the same way it affects Atlantic storms?
No. While El Niño typically generates high-altitude wind shear that breaks apart storms in the Atlantic, shifting wind patterns in the Pacific reduce those weakening winds.
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