US-Israel War with Iran: A Shifting Focus and Uncertain Future

Eleven days into the conflict initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran, the war’s trajectory remains complex. While initial strikes targeted military and government sites following the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, attacks have so far avoided direct targeting of Iran’s nuclear facilities. This strategic choice, coupled with shifting statements from President Trump, raises questions about the long-term objectives of the military operation and the potential for de-escalation.

Initial Strikes and Shifting Priorities

On February 28, 2026, President Donald Trump announced “major combat operations” against Iran, initiating a joint US-Israel offensive. The initial phase focused on strikes against military and government infrastructure ¹. However, despite ongoing bombardments, Iranian nuclear facilities have not yet been directly targeted.

Experts suggest this prioritization stems from a need to neutralize Iran’s immediate retaliatory capabilities. “It is essential to take out the Iranian missile systems so that they cannot strike back against US bases and neighboring countries,” explained Sebastian Langvad, head teacher at the War College ². The Iranian nuclear program is considered to be “very far from finished,” making it a less pressing immediate concern.

Trump’s Evolving Rhetoric and Credibility Concerns

President Trump initially indicated the war could conclude “pretty quickly” ¹, but has since warned of harsher consequences should Iran disrupt global oil supplies. His statements regarding Iran’s nuclear capabilities have also undergone a significant shift. After previously claiming the facilities were “totally obliterated” following a June 2025 attack ¹, Trump now alleges Iran could build a nuclear weapon within days.

This inconsistency has drawn criticism regarding the administration’s credibility. Jo Jakobsen, a professor of political science at NTNU, stated, “What comes from Trump and the Americans is a lie on a level we have never seen from a Western country before.” ²

Internal Uprising and Potential De-escalation

The US appears to be pursuing a short-term goal of facilitating regime change in Iran, hoping for an internal uprising against the current government ². However, if no significant internal opposition emerges within the next few weeks, a scaling back of attacks is anticipated, though a continued military presence in the region is likely.

Iran’s Response and Regional Implications

Despite the ongoing attacks, Iran remains defiant. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stated Iran will continue fighting “as long as necessary” ². Thousands of Iranians rallied in Tehran to demonstrate support for the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, following the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ².

Iran’s strategy centers on imposing costs on the US and its allies, potentially through attacks on neighboring states and shipping lanes. This approach aims to deter further intervention and highlight the risks associated with aligning with the US. The Gulf states are expected to be among the biggest losers in this conflict after Iran ².

Looking Ahead

The US-Israel war with Iran remains a volatile situation with uncertain outcomes. While the immediate focus appears to be on degrading Iran’s military capabilities, the long-term objectives and the potential for escalation remain significant concerns. Iran’s ability to withstand the attacks and impose costs on its adversaries will be crucial in determining the conflict’s ultimate resolution.