Russia Benefits as Iran War Disrupts Oil Trade, Strains US Focus

As the conflict between Iran and the U.S.-Israeli partnership continues, Russia appears poised to benefit regardless of the outcome, leveraging its position in the global energy market and capitalizing on a shift in international attention. The ongoing disruption to global oil trade, coupled with the U.S.’s focus on the Middle East, presents opportunities for Moscow to bolster its economy and expand its influence.

Oil Price Surge and Russia’s Strategic Advantage

The U.S.-Iran war has significantly impacted the global oil trade. As of Tuesday, March 10, 2026, Brent Crude was trading at $91 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $87 [1]. This price spike was partially triggered by Iran’s announcement of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global petroleum and liquified natural gas (LNG) – handling approximately 20% of both commodities annually.

Unlike many other oil producers, Russia’s oil exports do not rely on passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This allows Moscow to fill supply gaps for key customers like India and China, potentially reinvigorating its war economy, which had begun to show signs of strain [1], [2].

To alleviate pressure caused by Iran’s actions, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued a 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. Bessent stated the measure was temporary and wouldn’t significantly benefit Russia, anticipating increased U.S. Oil purchases by India [2].

Strategic Partnership, Limited Alliance

While Russia and Iran are described as “strategic partners,” their relationship doesn’t mirror a firm alliance like NATO or Russia’s ties with North Korea. A comprehensive strategic partnership treaty was signed in January 2025, covering trade, military cooperation, science, culture and education [4]. However, Russia deliberately avoided including clauses that would legally obligate it to defend Iran in the event of an attack, maintaining flexibility in its relationships with Israel and Gulf States [4].

Russia’s Broader Gains

According to Antonio Costa, President of the European Council, Russia is the primary beneficiary of the current conflict. He argues that Russia undermines Ukraine’s position by flouting international law, gains resources from rising energy prices, and benefits from the diversion of military capabilities that could otherwise support Ukraine [2]. The conflict in the Middle East also draws attention away from the war in Ukraine.

Iran’s increasing reliance on Russia for military hardware and humanitarian aid further strengthens Moscow’s leverage. Russia has purchased over $4 billion worth of weapons from Iran, primarily Shahed kamikaze drones [2].

Questionable Reliability

Analysts suggest the U.S. And Israeli strikes on Iran have exposed Russia as an unreliable ally. Brian Whitmore of the Atlantic Council notes that Moscow lacks the will and capacity to genuinely support its partners, being preoccupied with its war in Ukraine [2].

Neither Russia nor China has provided substantial aid to Iran beyond rhetorical support and calls for UN Security Council meetings [3].

Testing U.S. Capabilities

Amidst the conflict with Iran, Russia has also been testing U.S. Defenses. On March 4, 2026, Russian maritime patrol aircraft entered the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), the first such incursion since the start of “Operation Epic Fury” [2]. Analysts believe this was a deliberate attempt to assess U.S. Monitoring and response capabilities in the Arctic region, prompting a strong response from the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) [2].