Israel Heads to Polls in Legislative Election Under Netanyahu

How does the Israeli electoral system allocate power in the Knesset?

Israelis vote for political parties rather than casting a ballot directly for a prime minister. The 120 seats in the Knesset are allocated through a proportional representation system, requiring parties to cross a 3.25% national vote threshold to enter parliament. Because single-party majorities are rare, winning parties must construct governing coalitions. The country’s president asks a Knesset member — typically the leader capable of assembling a 61-seat majority — to form a government.

Who are the primary political blocks competing in the election?

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leads the right-wing Likud party, anchoring a bloc that includes far-right factions and ultra-Orthodox parties. Recent polls cited by CNN place Netanyahu’s bloc between 49 and 55 seats, falling short of the 61 seats required to govern alone. The main opposition bloc is led by centrist Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff. Like Netanyahu’s alliance, Eisenkot’s bloc also trails the 61-seat threshold in pre-election polling, making smaller factions and potential kingmaker parties decisive for the final outcome.

What core security and wartime priorities are driving voter decisions?

The campaign is dominated by the fallout from the October 7, 2023, attacks, which killed around 1,200 people and resulted in the abduction of more than 250 individuals. László Csicsmann, a Middle East expert at Corvinus University of Budapest, told CNBC that the ongoing conflicts have worn down Israeli society and turned the election into a test of which side can best convince voters of its ability to protect the population. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Ministry of Health reports that Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza has killed more than 74,500 people.

Defense policy remains central to both major blocs. While Netanyahu’s supporters view him as an experienced leader confronting formidable threats, his critics point to failures in pre-war preparedness and accountability. Daniel Schatz, a political scientist, noted that voters seeking alternative leadership want a government that can translate battlefield achievements into lasting security and restore public confidence in state institutions.

How are economic strain and military conscription affecting the vote?

With nearly every family supplying a soldier or reservist who has left civilian life for months of service, economic issues and the high cost of living weigh heavily on voters, particularly younger demographics. Concurrently, the legal and political dispute over mandatory military service for ultra-Orthodox men remains a major flashpoint. Compulsory service applies to most Jewish, Druze, and Circassian Israelis over 18, while Haredi communities have historically resisted the draft, straining Netanyahu’s outgoing coalition.

What are the frequently asked questions about the Israeli election?

Will the election result in a major shift in foreign policy toward Iran or Palestine?

Analysts suggest that a change in government would not yield a dramatic shift in Israel’s core foreign policy stances. Farzan Sabet, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, noted that both major competing blocs remain hawkish on security regarding Iran and Hezbollah. However, an anti-Netanyahu coalition might review military strategy toward Tehran, scale back actions in the West Bank, and pursue a more conciliatory posture to shore up international ties.

How might Arab voters influence the parliamentary math?

Arab parties are running in the election, and over 20% of Israel’s population is Arab. However, major Jewish parties have consistently ruled out forming governing coalitions with them, and Arab parties have rarely joined ruling governments. Turnout among Arab voters remains a critical variable that could shift seat allocations at the margins.

What happens if neither major bloc secures a 61-seat majority?

If neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor Eisenkot’s opposition reaches the 61-seat threshold after the final votes are tallied, coalition negotiations will depend heavily on smaller fringe parties that clear the 3.25% threshold. If repeated attempts by designated leaders to assemble a stable government fail, the country faces the prospect of calling another election.

More on this story: Netanyahu Urges Right-Wing Parties to Withdraw Ahead of Israel Election · Gadi Eisenkot emerges as Benjamin Netanyahu's challenger in polls

More on Netanyahu: Netanyahu Vows Massive West Bank Offensive After Hebron Attack Kills Two Soldiers · Netanyahu promises broad IDF operation after Hebron shooting · Netanyahu tells diplomats to call for talks on Falkland Islands